Electric energy meter fault number prediction method

A technology of failure quantity and prediction method, applied in prediction, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as failure to meet actual conditions, failure to predict the number of failures in batches of electric energy meters, and poor timeliness.

Active Publication Date: 2020-05-08
WENZHOU ELECTRIC POWER BUREAU +4
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Problems solved by technology

[0002] With the gradual increase of power equipment, the requirements for electric energy meters are getting higher and higher, and the problem of failure of electric energy meters is becoming more and more prominent, and the number of failures is difficult to determine
The current forecasting technology only relies on existing models to predict the demand for electric energy met

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  • Electric energy meter fault number prediction method
  • Electric energy meter fault number prediction method
  • Electric energy meter fault number prediction method

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Embodiment Construction

[0038] The technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0039] Such as figure 1 Shown, the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0040] 1) Obtain fault table data;

[0041] 2) Calculate and obtain the moving average number sequence of the sequence according to the fault table data;

[0042] 3) Obtain the moving average sequence, and determine whether to use the ARIMA model or the exponential smoothing model for forecasting according to the long-term trend and seasonal changes, most of which match the forecast data in the ARIMA model;

[0043] 4) Restore the seasonality of the obtained forecast data;

[0044] 5) Obtain the data after restoring the seasonality, and predict the number of fault tables according to the data;

[0045] Such as figure 2 As shown, the setting of the ARIMA model includes the following steps:

[0046] a) Obtain the historical data of the fault ta...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an electric energy meter fault number prediction method, and relates to a fault prediction method. In the prior art, an electric energy meter demand or alternating method is adopted, and the number of faults occurring in batches of electric energy meters every month is not predicted. The method comprises the following steps of: solving a moving average number sequence of asequence for imported data, establishing an ARIMA model for the moving average sequence, and predicting the future of the moving average sequence by using the model; and finally, restoring the seasonality of the predicted data, and finally obtaining a prediction result. According to the method, the time sequence decomposition model, the exponential smoothing model and the time sequence ARIMA modelare combined for use, and advantages and disadvantages can be made up; the accuracy and economy of predicting the fault number of the electric energy meter are improved, the quality risk and propertyloss caused by overdue and overstock of the electric energy meter are avoided, the cost input returned by the overdue meter is reduced, and the overstock of the inventory electric energy meter is avoided.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a fault prediction method, in particular to a fault quantity prediction method of electric energy meters. Background technique [0002] With the gradual increase of power equipment, the requirements for electric energy meters are getting higher and higher, and the faults of electric energy meters are becoming more and more prominent, and the number of faults is difficult to determine. The current forecasting technology only relies on existing models to predict the demand for electric energy meters, and cannot accurately determine the number of electric energy meter failures. There are problems of poor timeliness and low accuracy, and using existing models to predict may have unrealistic issues. [0003] The prior art is all about the demand or rotation method of electric energy meters, and there is no prediction of the number of failures of electric energy meters in batches per month. Contents of the invention [0004] The ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 吴亮陈琼金旭洁于蓉花蔡慧谢岳唐小淇
Owner WENZHOU ELECTRIC POWER BUREAU
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