Electric energy meter fault number prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses an electric energy meter fault number prediction method, and relates to a fault prediction method. In the prior art, an electric energy meter demand or alternating method is adopted, and the number of faults occurring in batches of electric energy meters every month is not predicted. The method comprises the following steps of: solving a moving average number sequence of asequence for imported data, establishing an ARIMA model for the moving average sequence, and predicting the future of the moving average sequence by using the model; and finally, restoring the seasonality of the predicted data, and finally obtaining a prediction result. According to the method, the time sequence decomposition model, the exponential smoothing model and the time sequence ARIMA modelare combined for use, and advantages and disadvantages can be made up; the accuracy and economy of predicting the fault number of the electric energy meter are improved, the quality risk and propertyloss caused by overdue and overstock of the electric energy meter are avoided, the cost input returned by the overdue meter is reduced, and the overstock of the inventory electric energy meter is avoided.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a fault prediction method, in particular to a fault quantity prediction method of electric energy meters. Background technique [0002] With the gradual increase of power equipment, the requirements for electric energy meters are getting higher and higher, and the faults of electric energy meters are becoming more and more prominent, and the number of faults is difficult to determine. The current forecasting technology only relies on existing models to predict the demand for electric energy meters, and cannot accurately determine the number of electric energy meter failures. There are problems of poor timeliness and low accuracy, and using existing models to predict may have unrealistic issues. [0003] The prior art is all about the demand or rotation method of electric energy meters, and there is no prediction of the number of failures of electric energy meters in batches per month. Contents of the invention [0004] The ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0002] With the gradual increase of power equipment, the requirements for electric energy meters are getting higher and higher, and the problem of failure of electric energy meters is becoming more and more prominent, and the number of failures is difficult to determine

The current forecasting technology only relies on existing models to predict the demand for electric energy meters, and cannot accurately determine the number of electric energy meter failures. There are problems of poor timeliness and low accuracy, and using existing models to predict may have unrealistic problems

[0003] Existing technologies are all about energy meter demand or rotation methods, and there is no prediction of the number of failures per month for batches of energy meters

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