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A Thunderstorm Track Prediction Method Based on Kalman Filter

A technology of Kalman filtering and prediction method, which is applied in weather condition prediction, measurement device, meteorology, etc., can solve the problems of inaccuracy and inflexibility of thunderstorm prediction algorithm, and achieve the effect of reducing the accuracy rate

Active Publication Date: 2021-12-17
SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0007] In order to solve the shortcomings of traditional thunderstorm forecasting algorithms that are not flexible enough and not accurate enough, the present invention proposes a method based on Kalman filtering to process lightning data to realize thunderstorm path prediction

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  • A Thunderstorm Track Prediction Method Based on Kalman Filter
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  • A Thunderstorm Track Prediction Method Based on Kalman Filter

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Embodiment Construction

[0062] In order to make the object, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0063] A kind of thunderstorm path prediction method based on Kalman filter of the present embodiment is set in the nth iteration, the time period is t n , the thunderstorm list List stores the previous time period t before the Kalman update n-1 Thunderstorms, after Kalman updates, the List stores the thunderstorms in the current time period.

[0064] figure 1 In order to complete the flow of an iterative thunderstorm path prediction algorithm, the following steps are included:

[0065] Step 1. Initial identification of thunderstorms; conduct preliminary identification of thunderstorms through the lightning data obtained from the lightning location system, and perform t n initial identification of thunderstorms. if there is t n-1 List...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a thunderstorm path prediction method based on Kalman filtering, which updates and refines the moving path of the thunderstorm in an iterative manner in a continuous time sequence, including the following steps: Step 01, using the cluster analysis method to analyze the lightning data Perform initial identification of thunderstorms; step 02, predict thunderstorm status according to Kalman filter; step 03, track thunderstorms in adjacent time periods based on thunderstorm status information; step 04, update thunderstorm status according to Kalman filter; step 05, extrapolate to obtain thunderstorm predicted path. The present invention establishes a Kalman filter model by observing the lightning observation data in the time and space sequences, uses the Kalman filter technology to predict and update the two-step program to reduce the noise influence of the observation data, and through continuous iterations, the thunderstorm path prediction result is obtained improved to improve accuracy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of meteorological lightning protection, in particular to a thunderstorm path prediction method based on Kalman filtering. Background technique [0002] Lightning is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world, not only causing social resource and economic losses, but also threatening human life. In the face of lightning disasters, how to effectively forecast the arrival of thunderstorms and improve the prediction accuracy has become the focus of lightning warning. [0003] There are many methods for thunderstorm early warning, and thunderstorm path prediction is one of the most important methods, including identification and tracking of thunderstorms, historical analysis of thunderstorms, and prediction of possible locations of thunderstorms in the future. Multiple time periods in the future obtained through prediction algorithms The possible locations of thunderstorms constitute a high-probability thunder...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G06F17/16
CPCG01W1/10G06F17/16Y02A90/10
Inventor 汤德佑陈靖宇伍光胜胡鹏奚建清张平健
Owner SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH