Strong convection weather short-term approaching forecasting method and system, storage medium and terminal

Abstract

The invention discloses a severe convection weather short-term approaching forecasting method and system, a storage medium and a terminal. The method comprises the steps of obtaining radar data in a preset time period; constructing a radar extrapolation model according to the radar data, and obtaining short-time approaching radar extrapolation data Z; determining a conversion relationship betweenthe short-time approaching radar extrapolation data Z and rainfall intensity R; and according to the conversion relationship between the short-time approaching radar extrapolation data Z and the rainfall intensity R, obtaining short-time approaching precipitation. The method can effectively improve the accuracy of short-term approaching forecasting of severe convection weather, reduces the false alarm rate, and improves the TS score.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of meteorological weather forecasting, in particular to a method and system for short-term forecasting of severe convective weather, a storage medium and a terminal. Background technique [0002] Convective weather nowcasting refers to the forecast of the occurrence, development, evolution and extinction of convective weather system and its accompanying disastrous weather in the next few hours (generally 0-2 hours). Nowcasting technology was developed on the basis of extrapolating radar echoes in the 1960s and 1970s. In the past ten years, with the further development of weather radar technology, especially the completion of the network deployment of the new generation of Doppler weather radar WSR88D in the United States and some European countries, the research on convective weather nowcasting technology based on radar data It's going fast. In today's world, many advanced nowcasting systems have been deve...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] Most of the current extrapolation forecasting algorithms do not consider the generation and disappearance of the convective system, and the forecast time is short, the forecast accuracy is not high, and there is no classification of strong convective weather forecast; in addition, the traditional way of strong convective weather warning does not consider localization The problem is that the forecast and early warning is only based on the basic data of the weather radar, and its early warning ability is weak and the early warning accuracy is low

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