A calculation method of landslide movement distance exceeding probability
A technology of moving distance and transcendence probability, applied in calculation, design optimization/simulation, data processing application, etc., can solve the problems of strong uncertainty of physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil, limited prediction accuracy of landslide moving distance, etc. Certainty, the effect of improving reliability
Active Publication Date: 2022-04-19
CHENGDU UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
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[0006] This application provides a method for calculating the exceeding probability of landslide movement distance to solve the problem that the physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil are highly uncertain and the existing dynamic numerical simulation methods have limited prediction accuracy for landslide movement distance
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[0103]Example: The landslide occurred on April 10, 2012. The volume of the landslide is about 20.6×104m3. The material of the landslide body is mainly Q2 loess, with a small amount of Q1 and Q3 loess. It is a medium-sized pure loess landslide. See Figure 3(a) for the overall view of the landslide, and Figure 3(b) for the section view. In order to show the movement distance more intuitively, the position of the trailing edge of the landslide is taken as the 0m point of the horizontal distance in the section view. The maximum horizontal movement distance of the landslide is 275m, and the equivalent friction coefficient H / L=0.26, which belongs to the remote landslide; the maximum lateral width is 150m, and the accumulation thickness of the slide mass is between 3 and 20m. The survey found that groundwater can be seen only 1m above the ground, which can be judged that the sliding surface is in a saturated state, and it can also be judged that the remote sliding of the landslide has...
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The application provides a method for calculating the exceeding probability of the landslide movement distance, the method comprising: for the landslide object, establishing a dynamic numerical model about the landslide object; using the selected input parameters of the dynamic numerical model as random variables, And determine the statistical characteristics of the random variable; Utilize the Latin hypercube sampling LHS method to stratify the random variable to generate multiple groups of random samples; input the random sample into the dynamic numerical model with the statistical characteristics, and calculate The landslide movement distance corresponding to each group of random samples; according to the actual distance between the disaster-affected body and the landslide object, determine the landslide movement distance threshold; calculate the probability that the landslide movement distance exceeds the landslide movement distance threshold, and can effectively quantify the input parameters Uncertainty in order to improve the reliability of landslide slide prediction results.
Description
technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of landslide prediction, in particular to a method for calculating the exceeding probability of landslide movement distance. Background technique [0002] Landslides are one of the most frequent disasters in the world, causing huge casualties and serious economic losses. As a more reasonable and effective concept and model of disaster prevention and mitigation, landslide risk assessment and management has always been one of the effective ways to advocate and promote internationally. At present, most studies on landslide risk assessment focus on the assessment of landslide stability, and the research on the process of landslide movement after instability is relatively weak. In the prevention and control of landslide disaster risk, in addition to knowing whether the landslide is stable and when it becomes unstable, it is also necessary to predict the movement distance of the landslide, so as to quan...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06Q10/06G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q10/04
Inventor 曾鹏孙小平李天斌张天龙王升
Owner CHENGDU UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY