Method for determining typhoon-affected sea area design wave height based on marine environment parameters

Abstract

The invention provides a method for determining the design wave height of a typhoon-affected sea area based on marine environmental parameters, and the method comprises the steps: combining a cumulative distribution function family with a composite extreme value distribution function through employing a combination function class method, and constructing a model of the design wave height h (x) ofthe typhoon-affected sea area. The designed wave height mode directly reflects the influence of typhoon frequency on marine environment elements, and statistical characteristics of marine environmentdesign parameters under extreme sea conditions can be described more completely. And meanwhile, when the random variable X is greater than a certain fixed value, the new model can better describe thepeak of the data, and the situation that the tail of the density function quickly tends to 0 does not occur, i.e., the tail data can be fully fitted. Therefore, errors caused by insufficient tail fitting of the extreme value distribution function can be reduced; in addition, under the condition that data information is short or missing exists, the recurrence level calculated through the method still has certain stability, and meanwhile, the Poisson-Gumbel-Pareto model can be directly applied to engineering practice.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of marine disaster prevention, in particular to a method for determining the design wave height of typhoon-affected sea areas based on marine environment parameters. Background technique [0002] In the design of coastal and marine structures, the design wave height is one of the important factors that must be considered. In practical engineering applications, it is necessary to use the design wave height to estimate the safety performance of engineering structures under harsh sea conditions and the cost of engineering structures. The existing methods for determining the design wave height mainly include the annual maximum wave method and the wave height threshold method, but the annual maximum wave method and the wave height threshold method have the following defects: the design wave height determined by the annual maximum wave method is too large, and the linear regression coefficient is small , the mean...

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Problems solved by technology

The existing methods for determining the design wave height mainly include the annual maximum wave method and the wave height threshold method, but the annual maximum wave method and the wave height threshold method have the following defects: the design wave height determined by the annual maximum wave method is too large, and the linear regression coefficient is small , the mean square error is large; the wave height threshold method sampling data has the characteristic of "sharp peak and thick tail", that is, the wave height threshold method has insufficient fitting of tail data

In addition, there are great uncertainties in the change law of wave height elements under the action of strong typhoon

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