Dynamic prediction method for flow duration curve under climatic change condition

Abstract

The invention discloses a dynamic prediction method for a flow duration curve under a climatic change condition. The method comprises steps of analyzing the correlation degree of runoff and rainfall in good and bad years by adopting a linked list inspection method; extracting one-dimensional and two-dimensional principal components of the actually measured runoff volume by adopting an empirical orthogonal function, identifying the high correlation of rainfall and runoff in magnitude through fluctuation change characteristics of the principal components in runoff and rainfall good and bad years, and further establishing the correlation of rainfall-runoff good and bad changes; and predicting a flow comprehensive duration curve under a specified weather condition by taking a future runoff good and bad division ratio speculated based on a predicted future rainfall time sequence as an adjustment coefficient and based on flow duration curves of good-diameter and bad-diameter years. Accordingto the method, rainfall information of various climate conditions can be flexibly described by introducing different climate scenes, non-stationary change characteristics of flow duration curves of different drainage basins are identified, dynamic prediction of the flow duration curves is realized, and the method has very high practicability and wide applicability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a dynamic prediction method of flow duration curve, in particular to a dynamic prediction method of flow duration curve under the condition of climate change, and belongs to the technical field of river basin hydrological analysis and water resource management. Background technique [0002] The flow duration curve is an important basis for basin hydrological analysis and water resource management decision-making, and is one of the important indicators reflecting the characteristics of runoff changes in a basin. Usually, for the future design value of the flow duration curve of a specific watershed, it is applied as a flow duration curve (Flow Duration Curve, FDC) based on the historical measured data of the watershed. [0003] However, under the background of global climate change, the runoff regime in the basin shows significant non-stationary fluctuations in wet and dry years, which makes it difficult for the traditional flow...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, under the background of global climate change, the runoff regime in the basin shows significant non-stationary fluctuations in wet and dry years, which makes it difficult for the traditional flow-duration curve estimation method to apply to the changing environment.

[0004] On the one hand, the problem of how to introduce the impact of climate change to estimate and adjust the traditional stationary flow-duration curve has not been fully resolved, especially the estimation of flow-duration curve under extreme climate conditions has become one of the research difficulties; on the other hand, The formation of watershed runoff is a complex physical response process under the action of multiple factors such as climate impact factors and underlying surfaces, which can be regarded as the superposition of multiple runoff time series values; therefore, it is necessary to separate the specified climate physical The contribution of factors (such as rainfall) to the co-evolution of runoff

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