Improved landslide critical sliding time forecasting method

Abstract

The invention discloses an improved landslide critical sliding time forecasting method, and aims to solve the problem of non-uniform calculation intervals in existing landslide time forecasting, and comprises the following steps: firstly, determining a landslide deformation rate time smooth curve; carrying out dimensionless processing on the landslide deformation curve through coordinate transformation, and converting the landslide deformation curve into a tangent angle change curve, so as to enable various landslide deformation curves to be compared under the same tangent angle characteristic; calculating a speed reciprocal is further calculated according to a formula, and then drawing a speed reciprocal time curve; further analyzing the deformation data, taking the deformation data corresponding to the tangent angle of 80-85 degrees as a calculation interval, and carrying out analyzing according to a velocity reciprocal forecasting model; and finally, adopting linear and nonlinear simultaneous fitting, enabling the fitting result to take the corresponding time when the reciprocal of the speed is 0 as the predicted landslide occurrence time, and selecting the result with earlier time as the final judgment. The method has the advantages of early warning and prevention of natural disasters.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of prevention and control of natural disasters, in particular to an improved landslide imminent time prediction method. Background technique [0002] 滑坡时间预报经历了漫长的发展,从最早的斋藤模型(MSaito,Forecastingthetimeofoccurrenceofaslopefailure.Proceedingsofthe6thInternationalConferenceonSoilMechanicsandFoundationEngineering.1965:537-541页),作图外延法模型(HoekE,BrayJ.Rockslopeengineering.InstitutionofMiningandMetallurgy,PublicationofInstitutionofMining&Metallurgy,1977,14( 4): 492-494 pages), to the gray prediction model proposed by a large number of subsequent scholars (Chen Mingdong, Wang Lansheng. Gray prediction methods for slope deformation and failure: Proceedings of the Third National Engineering Geology Conference, 1988: 1226-1233 pages) , Verhulst model (Yan Tongzhen. Landslide dynamic law and prediction application. Proceedings of the Third National Engineering Geology Conference, 1988: 707-713 pages), golden section forecasting model...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, adapt to actual needs, and provide an improved landslide imminent slipping time prediction method. The method of the present invention avoids the problem that the calculation interval is not uniform in the landslide time prediction, and the early warning tangent angle model will Quantify the deformation data of different landslides, and propose an improved time-to-slip prediction method based on the reciprocal velocity model, so as to provide a unified and reliable time reference for landslide emergency response

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