Survival analysis risk function prediction method based on gradient survival promotion tree

A gradient boosting tree and survival analysis technology, applied in the field of survival analysis, can solve the problems of inaccurate loss function and insufficient interpretability, and achieve the effect of improving accuracy, strong interpretability, and accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2020-11-13
SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

Although the commonly used GBDT and XGBoost can fit the user's risk at a specific time point in survival analysis, when fitting the user's risk at multiple time nodes at the same time, the loss function used by these methods is not accurate enough and cannot Obtain satisfactory effect in the field of the present invention
[0007] The survi

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  • Survival analysis risk function prediction method based on gradient survival promotion tree
  • Survival analysis risk function prediction method based on gradient survival promotion tree
  • Survival analysis risk function prediction method based on gradient survival promotion tree

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Embodiment

[0050] Such as figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a survival analysis risk function prediction method based on gradient survival boosting tree, comprising the following steps:

[0051] 1) Obtain survival analysis sample data, preprocess the sample data and establish training set and test set, construct survival analysis data expression according to the sample data, preprocessing includes basic data analysis, data cleaning and segmentation, training set and test The set is constructed through the chronological order of the survival analysis data;

[0052] 2) Under the model algorithm framework of the gradient boosting tree (GBDT), by improving the model loss function, define and calculate the loss function of the survival analysis risk prediction model and the first and second derivatives of the loss function;

[0053] 3) Construct a Gradient Boosting Survival Tree (GBST) model through the first and second derivatives of the calculated loss function and a greedy-b...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a survival analysis risk function prediction method based on a gradient survival promotion tree. The method comprises the following steps: S1, obtaining survival analysis sample data, and carrying out the preprocessing; s2, constructing a gradient boosting tree prediction model based on a greedy segmentation algorithm; s3, training the gradient boosting tree prediction model by using the training data; and S4, inputting the preprocessed survival analysis sample data into a gradient boosting tree prediction model, and outputting a risk function obtained by prediction. Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages of accuracy, generalization performance, interpretability and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of survival analysis, in particular to a survival analysis risk function prediction method based on a gradient survival promotion tree. Background technique [0002] Survival analysis, commonly used in actuarial and biomedical fields, is currently a hot model in the field of credit risk statistics. Different from traditional regression problems, the research goal of survival analysis is the probability of an event occurring at a specific time point, and then estimate the user's survival curve over time, rather than just predicting a target variable. Traditional survival analysis methods generally make certain assumptions about the risk function of individual users, and set the model parameters to have a linear relationship with individual covariates. The predictive performance of the model is closely related to the accuracy of the assumptions. Once the assumptions are not accurate, the model predictive power will be ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q40/08G06K9/62
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q40/08G06F18/24323
Inventor 雷沁欣程帆张冬梅
Owner SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIV
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