Flight safety assessment method based on human factor reliability

Abstract

The invention discloses a flight safety assessment method based on human factor reliability, and the method comprises the steps: determining a flight task and a task scene, decomposing a selected taskinto a series of subtasks, and determining a subtask execution plan; in combination with the sub-task characteristics, judging the task category to which sub-tasks belongs; determining influence factors causing human errors of the sub-tasks, and determining the weight of each human error influence factor through a group decision method; and establishing a human factor reliability model accordingto a mapping relationship between human error influence factors and human errors, and calculating a human error probability of the sub-tasks so as to evaluate flight safety. The correlation and the difference between human error influence factors are comprehensively considered, the problem of error estimation caused by insufficient data and excessive dependence on expert judgment is solved, the objectivity and the correctness of a calculation result are ensured, and countermeasures can be provided for reducing human errors and improving the flight safety.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of aviation safety assessment, in particular to a flight safety assessment method based on human factor reliability. Background technique [0002] With the continuous emergence of advanced avionics technology and the improvement of the reliability of airborne equipment, the incidence of aviation accidents related to civil aircraft electromechanical systems has dropped sharply in recent decades. However, the incidence of aviation unsafe incidents / accidents related to human error has not been effectively controlled. According to the aviation accident statistics reported by the International Civil Aviation Organization in 2019, the main cause of aviation accidents or catastrophic accidents is pilot human error, and more than 70% of accidents are directly or indirectly related to pilot human error. In addition, since the air traffic volume has been growing steadily, it is expected to double in the next few decades, and t...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The present invention aims to provide a flight safety assessment method based on human factor reliability to solve the problem of insufficient data and excessive reliance on expert judgment to cause miscalculation, thereby ensuring the objectivity and correctness of the calculation results and providing a forward-looking approach for flight safety assessment Quantitative analysis methods to provide countermeasures to reduce human errors and improve flight safety

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