Transformer substation project cost prediction method
A forecasting method and substation technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of small sample size, complex construction environment, and difficulty in project cost review and estimation, and achieve the effect of accurate forecasting results.
Pending Publication Date: 2021-03-23
STATE GRID HUBEI ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY +2
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Problems solved by technology
However, due to the many factors affecting the cost of power transmission and transformation projects, the complex construction environment, and the uneven construction level of line engineering, there are often large differences in the cost of power transmission and transformation projects that can be compared under the same voltage level. For a certain project, the sample size of the comparable power transmission and transformation project cost that can be referred to is small, and it is difficult for the relevant reviewers of the cost project to review and estimate the project cost based on experience and conventional statistical estimation models
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[0030] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments to facilitate a clear understanding of the present invention, but they do not limit the present invention.
[0031] like figure 1 As shown, the optimization of the present invention for the substation project lies in separately modeling and predicting each sub-item cost in the construction cost, and finally summarizing.
[0032] The invention provides a cost prediction method for a substation project, which specifically includes the following steps:
[0033] A. Identify the main factors that affect the cost of each substation project, and obtain the corresponding relationship between the construction project cost subdivision items, installation engineering cost subdivision items, equipment engineering cost subdivision items and influencing factors;
[0034] B. Collect substation engineering information and perform preprocessing;
[003...
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The invention discloses a transformer substation engineering cost prediction method, which is characterized by comprising the following steps: identifying main factors influencing the cost of each transformer substation engineering project to obtain the corresponding relationship among a construction engineering cost subdivision project, an installation engineering cost subdivision project, an equipment engineering cost subdivision project and influence factors; collecting and preprocessing substation engineering information; respectively identifying influence factors of the construction engineering cost, the installation engineering cost and the equipment engineering cost, and establishing a linear regression relationship between each influence factor variable and the construction engineering cost; simplifying the input influence factor variables according to the analysis result screened by the software, and finally determining irreplaceable influence factor variable input values; andintroducing the finally determined irreplaceable influence factor variable input value into the neural network prediction model to obtain a prediction result.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of substation construction, and in particular relates to a cost prediction method for substation engineering. Background technique [0002] In the construction of power transmission and transformation projects, the management and control of project cost plays a decisive role in the overall project management. Analyzing the level, structural changes, influencing factors and development trends of construction costs to achieve effective control of construction costs is of great significance for rationally verifying transmission costs, improving grid investment benefits, and strengthening project investment management. However, due to the many factors affecting the cost of power transmission and transformation projects, the complex construction environment, and the uneven construction level of line engineering, there are often large differences in the cost of power transmission and transformation projects that c...
Claims
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Login to View More IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/10G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/103G06Q50/06
Inventor 周明马莉李安卢生炜柯方超周秋鹏孙利平武强明月金莎许维明李俊卿谢元俊彭云祝玉章陈东闫振邱辉凌熊建武张婷秦博
Owner STATE GRID HUBEI ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY