Calculation method of geological disaster meteorological early warning accuracy

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of geological disaster prevention and reduction, and relates to a geological disaster meteorological early warning accuracy calculation method, wherein the method eliminates the influence of rainfall forecast errors. The method specifically comprises the following steps: dividing a research area into a plurality of early warning units, and determining the geological disaster quantity grade of each early warning unit in an early warning period; obtaining the early warning level of each early warning unit, and judging the early warning release condition of the research area; respectively calculating the total number NA of the early warning units with correct forecast, the total number NB of the early warning units with empty forecast and the total number NC of the early warning units with missing forecast in the early warning time period; respectively calculating a total hit rate POD, a total empty report rate FAR and a total missing report rate PO in the early warning time period by using a TS scoring method; respectively calculating a hit rate pod, an empty report rate tar and a missing report rate po of rainfall forecast in the early warning time period by utilizing a TS scoring method; and calculating a hit rate POD', an empty report rate FAR' and a missing report rate PO' of geological disaster meteorological early warning for eliminating rainfall errors.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of disaster prevention and mitigation of geological disasters, and relates to a method for calculating the accuracy rate of meteorological early warning of geological disasters. Background technique [0002] With the high incidence of geological disasters in my country, the problem of rainfall-induced mass geological disasters is particularly prominent. Meteorological early warning of geological disasters is one of the important ways to effectively prevent rainfall-induced geological disasters. However, since rainfall is the result of the interaction of weather systems of various scales, rainfall forecasting is a very complicated issue. The accuracy of rainfall forecasting is limited, and there are obvious seasonal changes, which lead to the meteorological early warning of geological disasters based on rainfall forecasting as the main basic data. The accuracy of forecast results is directly affected by the a...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Some scholars have proposed a calculation method for the accuracy rate of meteorological warning of geological disasters, and after practice verification, a lot of useful explorations have been carried out in terms of time forecast accuracy rate, space forecast accuracy rate, and intensity forecast accuracy rate, but the calculation results are still rainfall forecast and geology. The total accuracy rate of disaster meteorological early warning is lower than the actual one due to the influence of rainfall forecast error

At the same time, the existing methods for calculating the accuracy rate of geological disaster meteorological early warning only test the early warning period of the early warning area. In fact, accurately grasping the inducing effect of rainfall on geological disasters is the key to the early warning process of geological disaster meteorology, especially for areas prone to geological disasters Whether to issue an early warning under rainfall conditions needs to be accurately judged. Therefore, the accuracy of the period when no early warning is issued should also be tested

Images