Calculation method of geological disaster meteorological early warning accuracy

A technology of geological disasters and calculation methods, applied to alarms, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as low calculation accuracy, achieve the effect of eliminating rainfall forecast errors and improving the accuracy of early warning

Active Publication Date: 2021-04-06
中国地质环境监测院
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Problems solved by technology

Some scholars have proposed a calculation method for the accuracy rate of meteorological warning of geological disasters, and after practice verification, a lot of useful explorations have been carried out in terms of time forecast accuracy rate, space forecast accuracy rate, and intensity forecast accuracy rate, but the calculation results are still rainfall forecast and geology. The total accuracy rate of disaster meteorological early warning is lower than the actual one due to the influence of rainfall forecast error
At the same time, the existing methods for calculating the accuracy rate of geological disaster meteorological early warning only test the early warning period of the early warning area. In fact, accurately grasping the inducing effect of rainfall on geological disasters is the key to the early warning process of geological disaster meteorology, especially for areas prone to geological disasters Whether to issue an early warning under rainfall conditions needs to be accurately judged. Therefore, the accuracy of the period when no early warning is issued should also be tested

Method used

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  • Calculation method of geological disaster meteorological early warning accuracy
  • Calculation method of geological disaster meteorological early warning accuracy

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Embodiment 1

[0055] see figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a method for calculating the accuracy rate of meteorological early warning of geological disasters, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0056] S1. Determine the actual number of geological disasters that occurred during the early warning period, and calculate the level of geological disasters in each early warning unit one by one during the early warning period; the specific method is as follows:

[0057] Taking the early warning unit as the unit, take the range that the early warning unit ① extends outward by 1 / 2 as the statistical area, see figure 2 According to the number of geological hazards that actually occurred in each early warning unit within the early warning period, the geological hazard quantity level of each early warning unit can be determined (see Table 1);

[0058]

[0059] In the formula, T i is the cut-off value of the number of geological disasters, i is the number of geologic...

Embodiment 2

[0096] On the basis of Embodiment 1, the present invention provides a method for calculating the accuracy rate of meteorological early warning of geological disasters. Select 225km 2 In the research area, the early warning accuracy is 1:500,000 scale (5km*5km), and the research area involves 9 early warning units (see image 3 , l=5km), an early warning is issued every 24 hours, and the early warning period is 24 hours (daily). According to the current warning standards and practices, warnings are issued when yellow, orange and red warnings are generated, and no warnings are issued when blue warnings are generated.

[0097] Taking the early warning results of 1 day (24h) in the study area, calculate the total accuracy rate and rainfall forecast accuracy rate within the early warning period, and then calculate the geological disaster meteorological early warning accuracy rate excluding rainfall forecast errors. The specific calculation process is as follows:

[0098] S1. Dete...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of geological disaster prevention and reduction, and relates to a geological disaster meteorological early warning accuracy calculation method, wherein the method eliminates the influence of rainfall forecast errors. The method specifically comprises the following steps: dividing a research area into a plurality of early warning units, and determining the geological disaster quantity grade of each early warning unit in an early warning period; obtaining the early warning level of each early warning unit, and judging the early warning release condition of the research area; respectively calculating the total number NA of the early warning units with correct forecast, the total number NB of the early warning units with empty forecast and the total number NC of the early warning units with missing forecast in the early warning time period; respectively calculating a total hit rate POD, a total empty report rate FAR and a total missing report rate PO in the early warning time period by using a TS scoring method; respectively calculating a hit rate pod, an empty report rate tar and a missing report rate po of rainfall forecast in the early warning time period by utilizing a TS scoring method; and calculating a hit rate POD', an empty report rate FAR' and a missing report rate PO' of geological disaster meteorological early warning for eliminating rainfall errors.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of disaster prevention and mitigation of geological disasters, and relates to a method for calculating the accuracy rate of meteorological early warning of geological disasters. Background technique [0002] With the high incidence of geological disasters in my country, the problem of rainfall-induced mass geological disasters is particularly prominent. Meteorological early warning of geological disasters is one of the important ways to effectively prevent rainfall-induced geological disasters. However, since rainfall is the result of the interaction of weather systems of various scales, rainfall forecasting is a very complicated issue. The accuracy of rainfall forecasting is limited, and there are obvious seasonal changes, which lead to the meteorological early warning of geological disasters based on rainfall forecasting as the main basic data. The accuracy of forecast results is directly affected by the a...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08B21/10G08B29/18
CPCG08B21/10G08B29/185
Inventor 陈春利肖锐铧刘艳辉苏永超方志伟徐为梁宏锟
Owner 中国地质环境监测院
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