Overall quality evaluation method of multiple equipment based on expected failure probability

Abstract

The invention discloses an overall quality evaluation method for multiple devices based on expected failure probability. Based on the failure probability and equipment status, the present invention adopts a mathematical model that takes the equipment failure probability as the quality evaluation standard and the equipment state quantity as the judgment basis, and is used for the overall quality evaluation of multiple pieces of equipment. The change process of the state quantity has a relatively complete theoretical support, which solves the coordination problem between the equipment running time and the number of equipment, and makes the calculation results more accurate. The mathematical model adopted in the present invention not only reflects the random component in the state performance degradation law between each device, but also reflects the common law in the state performance degradation process of multiple devices, so that the calculation result is better than the existing state quantity prediction. The prediction results obtained by the method are more accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric equipment state evaluation, and specifically refers to a method for evaluating the overall quality of multiple devices with equipment failure probability as the quality evaluation standard and equipment state quantity as the judgment basis. Background technique [0002] The health status of power transmission and transformation equipment is very important to the safe operation of the power grid. Power equipment with poor health status will seriously threaten the safe operation level of the power grid and even cause power grid accidents. How to accurately evaluate the quality of power equipment, discover potential defects of power equipment in time, avoid accidents, maximize the availability of equipment, and prolong the service life of equipment has become an important topic in the power industry. In addition, the quality evaluation of a certain type of equipment can be used to guide specific work such as ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Obviously, this kind of prediction method can only predict the state quantity of a certain equipment, and its prediction results include the state performance degradation law and measurement error of this equipment, but cannot reflect the state performance degradation law among various equipment The random components in the system cannot reflect the common law in the process of the state performance degradation of multiple devices

That is, in the existing power equipment state quantity prediction algorithm, the prediction of a certain equipment state performance degradation function is definite (that is, the parameters in the degradation law or the state quantity change function over time are definite, simply put The equipment degradation rate is fixed), it is difficult to reflect the random factors in the degradation process of a certain equipment (that is, the equipment degradation speed is random); and the state change data of other equipment is not considered, that is, the overall Law of State Deterioration

Therefore, the accuracy of the prediction results obtained by the existing state quantity prediction methods is not high

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