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SDGs-oriented regional land demand quantity sequence prediction method

A technology for sequence forecasting and demand, applied in forecasting, resources, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as imperfections

Pending Publication Date: 2021-08-24
NANJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

At present, the research on the application of SDGs indicators to the prediction of land use demand is not perfect and needs to be enriched urgently

Method used

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  • SDGs-oriented regional land demand quantity sequence prediction method
  • SDGs-oriented regional land demand quantity sequence prediction method
  • SDGs-oriented regional land demand quantity sequence prediction method

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Embodiment Construction

[0023] A method for forecasting the sequence of regional land demand for SDGs, the method includes the following steps:

[0024] (1) Considering factors such as regional temperature, humidity, and political, economic and geographical divisions, the countries along the route are divided into 9 sub-regions;

[0025] (2) Integrate the SDGs indicators and the driving factors of land demand changes, and construct the SDGs-oriented land use system dynamic model of the countries along the region;

[0026] (3) Determine the calculation formula between the variables of the system dynamics model, and complete the model inspection;

[0027] (4) Select scenario variables and set future sustainable development scenarios for different SDGs goals;

[0028] (5) Obtain the time-series forecast value of the demand of each category under different sustainable scenarios in the future of the 9 sub-regions.

[0029] The present invention provides a method for predicting the sequence of regional l...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an SDGs-oriented regional land demand quantity sequence prediction method, which comprises the following steps of: dividing a regional country into 9 sub-regions by comprehensively considering factors of regional air temperature, humidity and geographical division; integrating SDGs indexes and land demand change driving factors, and constructing an SDGs-oriented regional national land utilization system dynamic model; determining an inter-variable calculation formula of the system dynamics model, completing model inspection; selecting scene variables, and setting future sustainable development scenes oriented to different SDGs targets; and obtaining a time sequence prediction value of the demand quantity of each land type in different sustainable scenes in the future of the 9 sub-regions. According to the method, the SDGs indexes and other factors influencing the land demand are combined together to serve as variables of system dynamics, driving factors of land utilization demand prediction are enriched, and different sustainable development scenes aiming at the UN sustainable development goal are set.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the forecasting of United Nations sustainable development goals and system dynamics models, in particular to a method for forecasting the SDGs-oriented regional land demand sequence. Background technique [0002] "Sustainable Development Goals" (Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs) contains 17 sustainable development goals and 169 specific goals, fully reflecting the three aspects of sustainable development, namely economic development, environmental beauty and social progress. The study on the forecasting of land use demand in the sustainable development target area can not only reveal the impact of the initiative on the land use demand, but also confirm the effect of the content of the construction area from the perspective of land use change, and contribute to sustainable development. It provides reference strategies for the development of countries in the target area in the direction of sustainable land use. At present, th...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/26G06F30/20
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06315G06Q50/26G06F30/20
Inventor 赵子竣胡雪吴凯曹敏陈旻梁莹常丽姣
Owner NANJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY
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