Power distribution network equipment fault prediction method and system
A technology of equipment failure and prediction method, which is applied in the direction of prediction, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., and can solve problems such as low precision, one-sided reliability calculation, and single consideration factors of equipment failure rate model
Pending Publication Date: 2021-09-10
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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Problems solved by technology
[0002] The equipment failure rate model considers a single factor, cannot fully utilize operating data, and cannot fully consider the impact of many other risk factors that cannot be modeled on the failure rate, and it is relatively one-sided when applied to reliability calculations
Moreover, the established model is relatively rough, the scope of definition is vague, and the accuracy is relatively low.
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[0065] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
[0066] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for fault prediction of distribution network equipment, so as to improve the accuracy and comprehensiveness of distribution network equipment fault prediction.
[0067] In order to make the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention more comprehensible, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings an...
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The invention relates to a power distribution network equipment fault prediction method. The method comprises the following steps: calculating the equivalent service age of power distribution network equipment in a selected area; determining the equipment type of the power distribution network equipment; when the equipment is environment exposure type equipment, using a dual-condition cloud inference model to determine influence factors of weather conditions and external damage, and then determining the fault rate of the power distribution network equipment by combining the equivalent service age; and when the power distribution network equipment is environment-closed equipment, determining a comprehensive health index (CHI) value of the power distribution network equipment by utilizing a proportional fault probability model, and further determining the fault rate of the power distribution network equipment in combination with the equivalent service age. According to the invention, different equipment types are considered, different fault rate calculation modes are adopted for different power distribution network equipment, different risk factors are considered in fault rate calculation, the accuracy, reliability and comprehensiveness of a calculation result are improved; the equivalent service age of the equipment is introduced in the fault rate calculation process, and the accuracy of the calculation result is further improved.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of fault diagnosis of distribution network equipment, in particular to a method and system for fault prediction of distribution network equipment. Background technique [0002] The equipment failure rate model considers a single factor, cannot fully utilize operating data, and cannot fully consider the impact of many other risk factors that cannot be modeled on the failure rate, and it is relatively one-sided to apply to reliability calculations. Moreover, the established model is relatively rough, with vague boundaries and low precision. Contents of the invention [0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a distribution network equipment failure prediction method and system to improve the accuracy and comprehensiveness of distribution network equipment failure prediction and reliability calculation. [0004] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following scheme...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06393G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 刘自发张婷
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)