Model and system for predicting severe new coronal pneumonia as well as establishment method and prediction method thereof

A technique for predicting models and establishing methods, applied in the medical field, can solve problems such as limited risk factors, and achieve the effect of improving the success rate of diagnosis and treatment

Active Publication Date: 2021-09-17
WEST CHINA HOSPITAL SICHUAN UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

However, the associated risk factors for predicting the progression from mild/comm

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  • Model and system for predicting severe new coronal pneumonia as well as establishment method and prediction method thereof
  • Model and system for predicting severe new coronal pneumonia as well as establishment method and prediction method thereof
  • Model and system for predicting severe new coronal pneumonia as well as establishment method and prediction method thereof

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Embodiment 1

[0063] Natural killer (NK) cells are innate lymphocytes that respond to viral infection and may be involved in the severity of COVID-19 disease. Therefore, in this example, based on the clinical manifestations of NK cells and other four preferred related factors, a prediction model for the progression of mild / common COVID-19 to severe disease is established, hereinafter referred to as the PAINT scoring model. A total of 239 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 from two medical centers in China were included in this example. The prognostic effects of variables were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards model and Kaplan-Meier method, including clinical data and laboratory test results from electronic medical records of each hospital. The PAINT scoring model established in this application to help predict the risk of progression from mild / common to severe COVID-19. After adjusting multiple confounding factors, age ≥ 75 years, IgM ≤ 0.84, CD16+ / CD56+ NK cells ≤ 116.5, aspartate ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a model and a system for predicting severe new coronal pneumonia as well as an establishment method and a prediction method of the model and the system, and the prediction model is a progression risk score calculation model obtained according to lung diseases, age, immune globulin M (IgM), CD16 +/CD56 + NK cells and aspartate transaminase (AST) of a patient with new coronal pneumonia so as to predict the risk of progressing from mild/ordinary type to severe new coronal pneumonia. According to the invention, light/ordinary patients with high development risk can be identified, and the diagnosis and treatment success rate of critical patients can be improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of medical technology, and in particular to a prediction model, system, establishment method, and prediction method for severe cases of COVID-19. Background technique [0002] The causative agent of the novel pneumonia was identified as a novel betacoronavirus, currently named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which shares similar phylogenetic similarities with SARS-CoV. SARS-CoV-2 infection has been named by the World Health Organization (WHO) as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), namely: Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia. [0003] COVID-19 has now become a major public health issue worldwide. The overall fatality rate of COVID-19 is estimated to be about 1-2.3%, which is similar to Spanish flu (2-3%) and much higher than seasonal flu (0.1%). According to WHO, the severity of COVID-19 is divided into mild, normal, severe and critical. In a study of 72 314 case reports by the Chinese...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G16H50/30G16H50/80A61B5/00
CPCG16H50/30G16H50/80A61B5/7275
Inventor 刘昌海白浪
Owner WEST CHINA HOSPITAL SICHUAN UNIV
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