High-energy-consumption industry power consumption prediction method and system based on correlation analysis
A technology of correlation analysis and prediction method, applied in the field of electric power, can solve the problems of no direct value in the research and judgment of the energy consumption of key industries in the region, and does not take into account the characteristics of the economic development of subdivided industries, etc., to achieve strong practicability and broad application prospects Effect
Pending Publication Date: 2022-03-15
STATE GRID FUJIAN POWER ELECTRIC CO ECONOMIC RES INST
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[0003] At present, the power consumption prediction method based on mathematical statistics is only applied to the relationship between the total energy consumption and the total economic output of the region, and does not take into account the characteristics of the economic development of the subdivided industries in specific regions. Therefore, the use of key industries in the region It can be judged that the situation has no direct value
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[0032] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.
[0033] It should be pointed out that the following detailed description is exemplary and is intended to provide further explanation to the present application. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.
[0034] It should be noted that the terminology used here is only for describing specific implementations, and is not intended to limit the exemplary implementations according to the present application. As used herein, unless the context clearly dictates otherwise, the singular is intended to include the plural, and it should also be understood that when the terms "comprising" and / or "comprising" are used in this specification, they mean There are features, steps, operations, means, components and / or combina...
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The invention relates to a correlation analysis-based high-energy-consumption industry power consumption prediction method and system. The method comprises the following steps of 1) obtaining industrial economic data and power consumption data of a region; 2) calculating unit GDP power consumption data of different industries, and identifying high-energy-consumption industry types of the regions; 3) establishing a regional high-energy-consumption industry autoregressive distribution lag model, and performing Granger causal relationship score test on various high-energy-consumption industries to obtain an association result between industrial power consumption data and economic data; and 4) selecting economic indexes with strong relevance, establishing a power consumption autoregressive distribution lag model of the high-energy-consumption industry, and obtaining a predicted value of the power consumption of the regional high-energy-consumption industry through prediction of the model.The method and the system are beneficial to prediction of the power consumption of the regional high-energy-consumption industry.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of electric power technology, and in particular relates to a method and system for predicting power consumption in high-energy-consuming industries based on correlation analysis. Background technique [0002] As the basic industry of the national economy, the power industry is closely related to the development of the industrial economy and power consumption. Excavating the relationship between the two is conducive to rationally planning the power development around the industrial cluster and improving the economics of industrial energy use, thus helping The healthy development of the industrial economy. With the proposal of the "dual carbon" goal, industrial energy conservation and emission reduction has received great attention from the society. High-energy-consuming industries, as the wind vane of regional electricity consumption, are the focus of the power sector. Carrying out electricity consumption forecasting...
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Login to View More IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q30/02G06Q50/06G06F17/18
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06393G06Q30/0283G06Q50/06G06F17/18Y02P90/82
Inventor 沈豫黄夏楠胡臻达刘林洪居华涂夏哲杨丝雨
Owner STATE GRID FUJIAN POWER ELECTRIC CO ECONOMIC RES INST