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Solar proton event peak flux prediction method

A prediction method, proton technology, applied in the field of solar proton events, can solve problems such as the inability to accurately predict the peak flux of proton events, and achieve the effect of avoiding false alarms

Active Publication Date: 2022-03-29
数字太空北京智能技术研究院有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The peak flux of solar proton events is not only closely related to the characteristics of solar eruptions, but also related to the position of the eruption point on the solar surface. Therefore, the presence or absence of proton events can be predicted by observing the characteristics of solar eruptions, but it cannot be accurately predicted Peak flux of proton events

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Embodiment Construction

[0029] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention are clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other implementations can be obtained by those skilled in the art without making creative efforts.

[0030] In the description of the present invention, it should be understood that the terms "counterclockwise", "clockwise", "longitudinal", "transverse", "upper", "lower", "front", "rear", "left", The orientation or positional relationship indicated by "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inner", "outer", etc. is based on the orientation or positional relationship shown in the drawings, and is only for the purpose of It is convenient to describe the present invention, but does not indicate or imply that the dev...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a solar proton event peak flux prediction method, and relates to the technical field of proton events, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, obtaining solar high-energy proton data in real time; s2, obtaining an energy spectrum factor Ri according to an energy spectrum factor calculation formula; s3, according to a relational expression lg (Ri) = C + D * F10 of the energy spectrum factor Ri and F10, obtaining constants C and D by using a least square method, and meanwhile, obtaining a correlation coefficient rr according to a correlation coefficient calculation formula; s4, calculating a predicted value F10max of the maximum value of the proton event according to a predicted value formula F10max = (lg (Rmin)-C) / D of the maximum value of the proton event, S5, repeating the steps S1-S4 to obtain predicted values of the maximum values of a plurality of proton events, calculating an average value of the predicted values of the maximum values of X continuous proton events when a relative error between the predicted values of the maximum values of the X continuous proton events is smaller than P, and if the relative error between the predicted values of the maximum values of the X continuous proton events is smaller than P, calculating the average value of the predicted values of the maximum values of the X continuous proton events. Therefore, the prediction value of the peak flux of the proton event is calculated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of solar proton events, in particular to a method for predicting peak fluxes of solar proton events. Background technique [0002] The solar proton event is a phenomenon in which the high-energy protons emitted by the sun accompanying the solar eruption increase sharply. Internationally, the maximum value of the flux of high-energy protons with an energy greater than 10 MeV in an event is usually used to determine the level of the event. Moreover, by For satellite anomaly statistics, the impact of proton events is closely related to the peak flux of proton events. [0003] The peak flux of solar proton events is not only closely related to the characteristics of solar eruptive events, but also related to the position of the eruption point on the solar surface. Therefore, the presence or absence of proton events can be predicted by observing the characteristics of solar eruptive activities, but it cannot be a...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/25G01W1/10G06F119/06
CPCG06F30/25G01W1/10G06F2119/06Y02A90/10
Inventor 王月王世金张威泰马新韩金钟
Owner 数字太空北京智能技术研究院有限公司
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