Method for evaluating influence of long-term drought on watershed water storage capacity based on optimal probability combination

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating the influence of long-term drought on the water storage capacity of a drainage basin based on optimal probability combination, and the method comprises the steps: recognizing the drought starting time and drought duration of the long-term meteorological drought of the drainage basin, and representing the water storage capacity of the drainage basin through a hydrological model parameter with a certain physical significance; a time point and a corresponding probability value at which the drainage basin water storage capacity is most likely to change are derived based on an optimal posterior probability combination principle, multiple evaluation criteria are adopted to evaluate the credibility of the drainage basin water storage capacity change, the significance degree of the change and the robustness of a result, and the time point of the drainage basin water storage capacity change is identified. And the response time of the basin water storage capacity to the long-term meteorological drought is deduced. The method is scientific and reasonable, is close to engineering practice, and can provide an important and highly operable reference basis for meteorological drought influence evaluation, watershed hydrological forecast, government disaster relief decision and the like under future climate change conditions.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of watershed hydrology, in particular to a method for evaluating the impact of long-term drought on water storage capacity of a watershed based on an optimal probability combination. Background technique [0002] Meteorological drought is one of the most destructive environmental disasters, which can affect not only the balance of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, but also many economic and social sectors including agricultural production, industrial production and urban water supply. The existing research on meteorological drought in my country[1] mainly focuses on the identification of meteorological drought[2], the division of drought degree and the transformation process between different drought types (such as the extension process from meteorological drought to hydrological drought[3]). . However, there are relatively few studies on the impact of long-term meteorological drought on changes in watersh...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] At present, the research on the calculation of the response of water storage capacity changes to long-term meteorological drought is still blank, and there is no literature or invention to construct the optimal probability combination method based on the conceptual hydrological model and use it to calculate the water storage capacity of the watershed to the long-term drought. Responding

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