Quantitative detection and attribution method for influence of artificial carbon emission on key variables of water circulation
A quantitative detection and water cycle technology, applied in data processing applications, instruments, design optimization/simulation, etc., can solve the problems of uncertainty in simulation estimation errors, slow progress in water cycle impact assessment, and difficult identification of human activity impact signals, etc., to achieve The attribution method is simple and effective, easy to obtain, and reduces the effect of computing costs
Pending Publication Date: 2022-07-22
CHINA UNIV OF GEOSCIENCES (WUHAN)
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[0002] The climate effect of anthropogenic carbon emissions has made great progress. However, the assessment of the impact of anthropogenic carbon emissions on the water cycle has progressed slowly. Uncertainty, making it difficult to identify signals of human activity impacts
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[0043] In order to have a clearer understanding of the technical features, objects and effects of the present invention, the specific embodiments of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
[0044] see figure 1 , In this embodiment, a quantitative detection and attribution method for the impact of anthropogenic carbon emissions on key variables of the water cycle is provided, including the following steps:
[0045] S1: Collect observational data of key variables of the water cycle, and conduct quality control of the data;
[0046] S1 specifically includes:
[0047]Download observational data for evapotranspiration and precipitation, choosing a specific time span (1980–2020) and spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°). The spatial coverage of the data should be at least over 70% to meet quality control requirements. The range of the above values can be adjusted according to actual needs.
[0048] S2: Obtain CMIP6 simul...
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The invention discloses a quantitative detection and attribution method for the influence of artificial carbon emission on water circulation key variables, which comprises the following steps of: performing deviation correction on the water circulation key variables (evapotranspiration and rainfall) simulated by a CMIP6 climate mode by adopting a quantile increment mapping method so as to reduce the uncertainty of climate mode simulation; on the basis of observation constraints, multi-mode weighted average is adopted to integrate multi-mode simulation results, so that the simulation precision of the climate mode on water circulation is improved; based on the processed climate mode simulation result and an optimal fingerprint method, multivariable detection and attribution are carried out, and fingerprint signals of the influence of artificial greenhouse gas emission and aerosol emission on water circulation key variables are quantitatively identified; and finally, estimating a future water circulation space-time evolution rule by using the established deviation correction and multi-mode weighting relationship, and reducing uncertainty and errors of future estimation. According to the method, the influence of artificial carbon emission on key variables of water circulation can be quantitatively identified, and theoretical reference can be provided for double-carbon targets and climate change coping.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of hydrology and water resources, in particular to a quantitative detection and attribution method for the influence of anthropogenic carbon emissions on key variables of water cycle. Background technique [0002] The climate effect of anthropogenic carbon emissions has made great progress, but the assessment of the impact of anthropogenic carbon emissions on the water cycle has been slow. Uncertainty makes it difficult to identify human-influenced signals. Therefore, it is urgent to provide a technical solution that can reduce the error and uncertainty of model simulation and effectively improve the quantitative detection and attribution of key links in the water cycle. SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION [0003] The main technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a technical solution that can reduce the error and uncertainty of model simulation and effectively improve the quantitative detection a...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/20G06Q10/06G06Q50/26G06F111/10
CPCG06F30/20G06Q10/0639G06Q50/26G06F2111/10
Inventor 刘剑宇冯星昱
Owner CHINA UNIV OF GEOSCIENCES (WUHAN)
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