Using aircraft trajectory data to infer aircraft intent

Abstract

A method is provided for inferring the aircraft intent of an aircraft from an observed trajectory. Aircraft performance data relating to that type of aircraft is retrieved from memory, along with atmospheric conditions along the observed trajectory. An initial set of candidate aircraft intents is generated. Each aircraft intent provides an unambiguous description of how the aircraft may be flown that allows a determination of an unambiguous resulting trajectory. A computer system calculates a trajectory defined by each candidate aircraft intent and forms a cost function from a comparison of each calculated trajectory to the observed trajectory. An evolutionary algorithm evolves the initial candidate aircraft intents, wherein the evolutionary algorithm uses a multi-objective cost function to obtain a cost function value that measures the suitability of each candidate aircraft intent.

Description

BACKGROUND INFORMATION[0001]1. Field[0002]The present invention relates to a method of providing data relating to the aircraft intent of an aircraft using observations of the aircraft's trajectory. The inferred aircraft intent may be used for predicting the future trajectory of the aircraft, for use in conflict resolution within air traffic management, or for analyzing air traffic management.[0003]2. Background[0004]The ability to describe, and also to predict, an aircraft's trajectory is useful for many reasons. By trajectory, a four-dimensional description of the aircraft's path is meant. The description may be the evolution of the aircraft's state with time, where the state may include the position of the aircraft's center of mass and other aspects of its motion such as velocity, attitude and weight. In order to predict an aircraft's trajectory unambiguously, one must solve a set of differential equations that model both aircraft behavior and atmospheric conditions.[0005]Aircraft...

AI Technical Summary

Benefits of technology

The patent describes a method for analyzing the performance of air traffic management using advanced techniques such as simulation and optimization. The method measures efficiency in terms of throughput, delays to aircraft, fuel efficiency, and noise minimization. The method also includes a random element in how the initial set of candidate aircraft intentions is generated, and a repeated inner loop to allow for the evolution of the candidate aircraft intents to replicate actual flight segments. The cost function used in the method rewards candidates with fewer flight segments and penalizes them with more flight segments to ensure a more accurate match between the computed trajectory and the observed trajectory. The technical effects of this patent include improved efficiency and reduced delays in air travel.

Problems solved by technology

While aircraft intent data may be provided by the aircraft or the aircraft operator, aircraft intent data is not always readily available to other interested parties.

Use of the first metric will drive the candidate aircraft intents to produce trajectories with the lowest average deviation, but this may produce trajectories with very low deviations in some parts and very high deviations in other parts which may not be desirable.

As each thread is then completely defined, and as the threads together define all degrees of freedom of the aircraft, this method necessarily closes all degrees of freedom of the aircraft throughout the observed trajectory and so gives rise to an unambiguous trajectory.

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