Method for predicting spare part demand in equipment manufacturing process

A forecasting method and technology of development process, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as difficulty in obtaining input data for spare parts forecasting, difficulty in engineering operation of spare parts forecasting method, etc., and achieve simple and easy-to-understand methods with great flexibility , the effect of accurate calculation results
CN101853448AInactive Publication Date: 2010-10-06BEIHANG UNIV
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN Β· China
Current Assignee / Owner
BEIHANG UNIV
Publication Date
2010-10-06
Estimated Expiration
Not applicable Β· inactive patent

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting spare part demand in an equipment manufacturing process. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, directly acquiring an achieved availability (Aa) index, mean time between failures (MTBF), mean time to repair (MTTR) and mean preventive maintenance time (MPMT) of equipment; 2, acquiring mean waiting time (WT) of system level spare parts; 3, distributing the WT of the system level spare parts and acquiring waiting time WTi of a subsystem; 4, acquiring the waiting time WTij of each of line replaceable unit (LRU) level products which form the subsystem by a Dephi distribution method; 5, acquiring a spare part out-of-stock expected value EBOij and an inventory level sij of the LRU; and 6, acquiring a spare part fill rate according to the inventory level sij. A quantitative relation between spare part waiting time and equipment availability is established and spare part planning is always performed based on a user demand and a manufacturing requirement. Due to the combination of an equal distribution method and a Dephi method, the method has high flexibility and can be suitable for various stages of engineering development.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to a method for forecasting spare parts demand in the equipment development process, belonging to the technical field of reliability and system engineering. Background technique

[0002] Equipment support refers to the support work required to keep the equipment in a state of complete combat readiness and to continuously complete combat tasks during the life cycle of the equipment, and is closely related to equipment development. The smooth development of equipment support work is inseparable from support resources, among which spare parts are an important support resource and an important material basis for the implementation of maintenance support work. Spare parts costs account for a considerable proportion of equipment life cycle costs. In the development stage, support analysis techniques are usually used to plan spare parts support resource requirements. In this way, spare parts supply planning can be carried out under the c...

Claims

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