Method for synthetically evaluating dynamic reliability of power system automatic device

Abstract

The invention provides a quantitative analysis method for automatic device dynamic reliability according to the function and work characteristics of the power system automatic device, aiming at searching out the weak link of the system and providing a reference basis for improving reliability of automatic device design and operation. The method comprises the following steps of: firstly, establishing the cumulative failure probability, availability, probability important indexes of basic components; secondly, establishing an automatic device dynamic reliability model conjoining a Markov state space and a dynamic fault tree, and providing a Monte Carlo simulation method based on a dynamic fault tree structure for reliability quantitative evaluation of a correlation system; and finally, verifying the validity of the provided method by examples, and performing correlation analysis. The result shows that the method has referential value for reliability assessment, component impact analysis and weak link recognition of the power system automatic device.

Description

Technical field [0001] According to the function and working characteristics of the automatic device in the electric power system, the present invention proposes a quantitative analysis method for the dynamic reliability of the automatic device, aiming at providing a reference for finding weak links in the system and improving the design and operation reliability of the automatic device. technical background [0002] The power system is a huge and complex system, and the components are connected through electricity or magnetism. Any component failure will affect the normal operation of the system to varying degrees. The basic task of the power system automatic device is: when a fault or abnormal working condition occurs in the power system, automatically remove the faulty equipment from the system in the shortest possible time and in the smallest area, or send a signal to eliminate the abnormal working condition by the on-duty personnel Root causes to mitigate or avoid damag...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the fault tree analysis method can only be quantitatively analyzed under the condition that the probability of occurrence of each basic event is known, and as an analysis method based on static logic or static fault mechanism, it cannot describe the dynamic behavior of system failure, such as fault repair, timing, etc. related faults and hot and cold standby etc.

[0005] As a special stochastic process, the Markov process is widely used in the reliability analysis of automatic devices in power systems. Although it can describe the dynamic characteristics of the system, the size of its state space varies with the scale of the system and the complexity of the dynamic process. The degree increases exponentially, which makes the establishment and solution of the Markov model very cumbersome, and the reliability of not all components obeys the exponential distribution. When dealing with the dynamic reliability of complex systems, there are problems such as state division and difficulty in solving.

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