Short-term wind power prediction method and system based on multiple numerical weather prediction sources

Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term wind power prediction method and system based on multiple numerical weather prediction sources, and the method and the system can be applied to ten-million-kilowatt wind power bases in Jiuquan. The method comprises the following steps of: establishing prediction models for wind power plants by applying a physical and statistical combined method; acquiring the numerical weather prediction data of the wind power plants and inputting the numerical weather prediction data into the prediction models; and carrying out prediction processing on the short-term and ultra-short-term wind power contributing situations of the wind power plants based on the input numerical weather prediction data by virtue of the predication models so as to acquire predicted results capable of being applied to power dispatching and the establishment of new prediction models. The short-term wind power prediction method and system based on the multiple numerical weather prediction sources, disclosed by the invention, have the advantages that the defect, in the prior art, that the practical requirements cannot be met due to low prediction accuracy and poor safety and stability can be overcome, and the practical operation in power dispatching can be achieved due to high prediction accuracy, safety in operation and good stability.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power systems, in particular to a short-term wind power forecasting method and system based on multiple sets of numerical weather forecasting sources. Background technique [0002] Against the background of the depletion of coal, oil and other conventional energy sources and serious environmental problems, wind power generation, as the power generation technology with the most mature technology, the most large-scale development conditions and the most commercial development prospects among renewable energy sources, is increasingly receiving national attention. With great attention and strong support, it has developed rapidly in recent years. [0003] With the rapid development of wind power, the grid-connected operation of large wind farms has an increasingly significant impact on the grid. my country's wind power bases are generally located in sparsely populated areas with small loads and relati...

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Problems solved by technology

[0010] In the process of realizing the present invention, the inventor found that there are at least some defects in the prior art, such as low prediction accuracy, poor safety and stability, so that the practical requirements cannot be met.

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