Glacial lake burst early-warning method

Abstract

The invention discloses a glacial lake burst early-warning method. Aiming at the defects that the adopted index is not reasonable, modification on observation data is over-simple in the existing glacial lake burst early-warning method, the invention provides the glacial lake burst early-warning method comprehensively considering the affects from an atmospheric temperature and the rainfall condition. According to the method, long-term observation data of temperature and rainfall in an observatory station is obtained and analyzed by a control center, a cumulative positive temperature daily increasing speed value TV in early days of a forecast date and a rainfall daily increasing speed value RV in early 30 days of the forecast date are calculated, and the TV value and the RV value are simultaneously subjected to double-index comparison with a burst warning curve RV=2.7214TV<-0.956> to judge the burst risks of the glacial lake, and an alarming system is started by the control center if necessary. According to the method, the corresponding relationship between two specific indexes of the cumulated temperature daily increasing speed value and the rainfall daily increasing speed value in early 30 days which are selected from numerous temperature and rainfall indexes and the glacial lake burst danger is determined, and the burst early-warning curve is determined. The forecast is carried out according to a more comprehensive and reasonable climate index, so the early-warning effectiveness is increased.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for early warning of glacial lake outburst, in particular to a method for early warning of glacial lake outburst realized by using temperature and rainfall as dual indicators. Background technique [0002] Glacier lakes are the product of glacier movement and are widely distributed in mountainous areas around the world. Glacial lake outburst is a sudden and serious mountain disaster in the glacial area. The floods and debris flows caused by its occurrence are strong in suddenness, high in flood peaks, large in flow, strong in destruction, short in duration and large in scope. In the process of formation, flow and accumulation, other secondary disasters will be stimulated, resulting in huge economic losses and casualties. Under the current background of global warming and frequent extreme climates, glaciers generally retreat, the area of ​​glacial lakes increases, and the risk of collapse increases. Therefore, the ear...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although this method can be used to predict the occurrence of glacial lake outburst events to a certain extent, it still has two shortcomings: 1. The method uses unreasonable indicators

Since there is usually no meteorological observation station established at the location of the glacial lake, and there is a lack of accurate meteorological data, the data of the nearby observation points can only be used after previous corrections, so the lack of early correction of the data also affects the accuracy of the forecast results

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