Method for carrying out piecewise fitting on probability distribution of regional lightning current amplitudes based on SPSS (statistic package for social science)

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for carrying out piecewise fitting on the probability distribution of regional lightning current amplitudes based on SPSS (statistic package for social science), which comprises the following steps: S1, recording lightning location data of each lightning in a region, wherein the lightning location data comprises specific lightning sites and lightning current amplitudes I; S2, carrying out statistics on the lightning location data through Excel software so as to obtain a cumulative probability P (>I) of different lightning current amplitudes; S3, screening the lightning location data: only taking negative-polarity lightning currents with a lightning current amplitude of 0-200 kA into consideration; and S4, dividing the lightning current amplitudes into three intervals, namely, (0, 13], (13, 45] and (45, 200], and taking set values with a confidence probability of 95% to carry out fitting. According to the invention, the distribution rule of lightning current amplitudes of a region can be reflected more truly, and more accurate basic data can be provided for calculation of the lightning trip-out rate of lines, so that the lightning protection design and operation maintenance of electric transmission lines can be instructed more scientifically, thereby effectively reducing the lightning trip-out risks of lines, and generating obvious economic benefits and social benefits.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for fitting the probability distribution of the regional lightning current amplitude, in particular to a method for fitting the probability distribution of the regional lightning current amplitude in sections based on SPSS software. Background technique [0002] my country is located in temperate and subtropical regions, where thunderstorms are very frequent, which poses a major threat to the safe operation of my country's power grid. The classification statistics of grid faults show that in the total number of trips of high-voltage lines, the number of trips caused by lightning strikes accounts for 40% to 70%. Especially in recent years, the rapid development of power grids, the lengthening of transmission lines, and the harsh atmospheric environment have increased the probability of lightning flashover of the power grid. [0003] The probability distribution of lightning current amplitude is an important basic data used to...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the power grid in any place has its particularity. The distribution of different power grid lines is very different, and the lightning resistance level of the same voltage level will also be different.

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