Monthly electrical load computer forecasting method based on wavelet analysis

A technology of power load and wavelet analysis, applied in forecasting, calculation, instrument and other directions, can solve the problem of not being able to reflect the growth trend of the load curve well.

Active Publication Date: 2013-06-05
STATE GRID FUJIAN ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD +3
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Problems solved by technology

Therefore, the method of using regression model and artificial neural network can reflect the seasonal fluctua

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  • Monthly electrical load computer forecasting method based on wavelet analysis
  • Monthly electrical load computer forecasting method based on wavelet analysis
  • Monthly electrical load computer forecasting method based on wavelet analysis

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[0041] Reference figure 1 with figure 2 , The monthly power load forecasting method based on wavelet analysis of the present invention includes an input module 1, a wavelet transform module 2, a first type prediction module 3, 4, 5, 6, a second type prediction module 7, a wavelet reconstruction module 8, Output module 9. Input module 1 receives historical load data c 0 , And historical data c 0 Send to the wavelet transform module 2; the wavelet transform module 2 decomposes the historical data and decomposes them into d 1 , D 2 , D 3 , D 4 , C 4 Five components, where d 1 -d 4 Has the characteristics of annual cyclical changes, c 4 Has a growing trend of change; the first type of prediction module 3, 4, 5, 6 pair d 1 -d 4 These four components make predictions; the second type of prediction module 7 performs c 4 The components are predicted; the wavelet reconstruction module 8 performs wavelet reconstruction on the predicted components to obtain the predicted load c 0 '; Final...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a monthly electrical load computer forecasting method based on wavelet analysis. The monthly electrical load computer forecasting method comprises an input module, a wavelet conversion module, a first kind forecasting module, a second kind forecasting module, a wavelet reconstruction module and an output module, wherein the input module receives historical load data c0, and transmits the historical data c0 to the wavelet conversion module, the wavelet conversion module conducts decomposition for the historical data, the historical data is sequentially decomposed to five components including d1, d2, d3, d4 and d5, the d1, the d2, the d3 and the d4 have annual cyclical change characteristics, c4 has ever-increasing variation tendency, the first class forecasting module forecasts four components of the d1, the d2, the d3 and the d4, and the second class forecasting module forecasts a c4 component. The wavelet conversion module conducts wavelet reconstruction for the components after forecasted, forecasting load c0'is obtained, and finally, the forecasting load is displayed through the output module.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a power load forecasting method, in particular to a monthly power load computer forecasting method based on wavelet analysis. Background technique [0002] Load forecasting is the basis for power system development planning, fuel planning, and power generation planning. The monthly forecast takes the month as the forecast period and the monthly power consumption as the forecast content. Through the monthly load forecasting technology, the medium-term operation plan of the power system can be reasonably arranged, the operation cost can be reduced, and the reliability of power supply can be improved. [0003] The change law of monthly load in each year has annual periodicity. When forecasting monthly load, it is necessary to take into account the annual periodicity of monthly load, make full use of the latest monthly data, and use the latest change law to forecast the future. The predicted impact is clearly reflected. Since th...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 易弢林扬宇陈彬高丙团包宇庆
Owner STATE GRID FUJIAN ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD
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