Prediction method for wind power ramp

Abstract

The invention provides a prediction method for wind power ramp. The prediction method comprises the steps that the ramp continuous time, the ramp amplitude and ramp direction of wind power in an ultra short period as well as the real-time ramp rate are calculated sequentially point by point, and the real-time ramp rate is compared with a threshold to determine whether a wind power ramp event occurs; a short-period wind power prediction sequence which is updated every day is obtained, smoothing is carried out on the prediction sequence point by point, the ramp center time of the power ramp event is determined according to the maximum of the part exceeding the set threshold, and the ramp continuous time, the ramp amplitude and the ramp direction are calculated according to the critical point exceeding the threshold, thereby realizing prediction for the extreme short-period wind power ramp event; and historical prediction / observation results for the ultra-short-time wind power ramp and the short-time wind power ramp are respectively calculated to predict the wind power ramp.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system prediction and control. In particular, it relates to an ultra-short-term / short-term wind power ramp-up prediction method. Background technique [0002] Dominated by the changing characteristics of wind resources, wind power output has strong randomness and volatility. Wind power ramp-up events refer to large changes in wind power output in a relatively short period of time. After large-scale wind power is centralized and connected to the grid, the wind power ramp-up can change hundreds of megawatts in a short period of time, which is an important challenge for power system dispatching and operation. , once the climbing range or climbing rate exceeds the range that the system can bear, it will pose a threat to the security and stability of the system. [0003] Forecasting the wind power ramp can help the system take measures in advance to deal with the upcoming power ramp event. The basic e...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The technical specification of wind power forecasting system has been preliminarily established in China, stipulating that the forecasting system provides ultra-short-term future 4-hour power forecasts rolling every 15 minutes and short-term day-ahead power forecasts reported daily, but does not include the requirements for power climbing forecasts. Existing wind power forecasting systems do not have this function

On the other hand, the numerical weather forecast service used by the domestic wind power forecasting system is generally provided by meteorological agencies once or twice a day, and there is no rolling numerical forecast service yet, so it is difficult to simulate the power ramp by relying on real-time weather forecast

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