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Prediction method for power transmission line mountain fire caused by multiple factors

A technology of transmission lines and prediction methods, applied in the field of transmission and distribution, can solve problems such as limitations, not considering combustibles, etc., and achieve the effects of reducing losses and high prediction accuracy.

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-08-06
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The above method is limited to weather factors, and does not consider the influence of other factors such as the type of combustibles, so it has great defects

Method used

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  • Prediction method for power transmission line mountain fire caused by multiple factors
  • Prediction method for power transmission line mountain fire caused by multiple factors
  • Prediction method for power transmission line mountain fire caused by multiple factors

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0030] (1) Grid division prediction area. The area near the entrusted transmission line will be divided into equal grids, and the grid size will be 0.25° longitude × 0.25° latitude;

[0031] (2) Calculate the historical fire point density A. Collect online the distribution of historical fire points monitored by satellites in the last n years in the area near the entrusted transmission line, and calculate the total number of historical fire points a(i) in the grid drawn in step (1) according to the distribution of historical fire points obtained, where i is a date. Then calculate the daily average fire point density A(i) of each grid according to the following formula 1, where i is the date. Formula 1 is as follows:

[0032] A(i)=a(i) / n, --------------Formula 1

[0033] In formula 1, A is the daily average fire point density, and i is the date. -a(i) is the total number of daily historical fire points. n is the number of years;

[0034] (3) Calculate the fire point densi...

Embodiment 2

[0050] Steps (1)~(6) are the same as in Example 1;

[0051] (7), calculate the surface vegetation index F. Query the surface vegetation data of the forestry department online, and according to the data, confirm that the vegetation type in the area near the entrusted transmission line in the grid is a non-combustible type, that is, desert or water surface, and its surface vegetation index F is recorded as 0;

[0052] Step (8) is the same as in Example 1.

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Abstract

The invention discloses a prediction method for a power transmission line mountain fire caused by multiple factors. The prediction method comprises the steps that (1) a grid is divided into prediction regions; (2) historical fire point density A is calculated; (3) current fire point density B is calculated; (4) the rainfall index C in every day of the following three to seven days is calculated; (5) the historical rainfall index D is calculated; (6) the high-frequency period E of industrial and agricultural fires is found out; (7) the ground surface vegetation index F is calculated; (8) mountain fire prediction density X is calculated. By means of the prediction method, mountain fire occurrences in the following three to seven days can be predicted; the operability is high; the accuracy rate of forecasting is high, quantitative prediction is realized, and the power transmission line mountain fire prevention work can be effectively guided; according to a prediction conclusion, a corresponding emergency scheme can be made in time, the mountain fire can be handled in advance, and loss caused by the mountain fire to places nearby a power transmission line is reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power transmission and distribution, and in particular relates to a method for predicting the occurrence of mountain fires on transmission lines triggered by multiple factors based on the density of mountain fires. Background technique [0002] In recent years, especially during the period of burning waste, Spring Festival, and Qingming Festival, large-scale wildfires have occurred frequently near transmission lines, which are particularly likely to cause tripping and seriously affect the safe operation of transmission lines. There are three kinds of mountain fire predictions known in China, such as fire danger weather forecast, which only predicts the possibility of fires caused by weather conditions; such as fire occurrence prediction, which only uses factors such as weather changes, types of combustibles, dryness and humidity, and fire sources to predict Predict the possibility of fire occurrence; anot...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 陆佳政徐勋建张红先李波方针
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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