Regional ground surface irradiance distribution predicting method

Abstract

The invention relates to a regional ground surface irradiance distribution predicting method which is used for determining minute-level ground surface irradiance regional distribution prediction within future 1 hour. The regional ground surface irradiance distribution predicting method comprises the following steps of: determining a local cloud base height; performing image process on a foundation cloud picture; predicting local ground surface irradiance distribution. The regional ground surface irradiance distribution predicting method provides calculation of the cloud base height by utilizing the ground surface regular meteorological observation data, realizes ground surface irradiance and photovoltaic power prediction within the local range through combination of foundation cloud picture data, is free from the dependence from a traditional method to the observation of the cloud base height, and improves calculation accuracy of cloud position and size at the absence of a ceilometer and the water level total irradiance prediction accuracy of a photovoltaic power station.

Description

Technical field: [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the distribution of regional surface irradiance, and more particularly to a method for predicting the distribution of regional surface irradiance in combination with cloud base height calculation and ground-based cloud image processing. Background technique: [0002] With the rapid increase of large-scale photovoltaic power grid-connected capacity, the randomness and volatility of photovoltaic power generation have increasingly serious impacts on the safe operation, dispatch and control of power systems. In order to reduce the harm caused by photovoltaic uncertainty to the power grid and improve the utilization efficiency of solar energy, it is first necessary to accurately predict the photovoltaic power generation. [0003] A precondition for photovoltaic power prediction is accurate prediction of surface irradiance. At present, there are mainly two methods for mainstream surface irradiance prediction,...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the acquisition of cloud base height information by existing algorithms relies on ceilometer observations

In the absence of ceilometer observation data, existing algorithms cannot obtain real-time cloud base height information, and can only be replaced by statistical averages or empirical values, resulting in inaccurate cloud size calculations and inability to accurately obtain cloud shadows on the ground. information about the size and location of

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