Seasonal precipitation analogue prediction method based on seasonal prediction mode

Abstract

The invention discloses a seasonal precipitation analogue prediction method based on a seasonal prediction mode, and relates to the technical field of weather prediction of meteorology. The method comprises the following steps of according to historical seasonal mode prediction information, obtaining a mode prediction error principal component and feature vectors corresponding to the mode prediction error principal component; judging whether the mode prediction error principal component can be predicted or not; when the mode prediction error principal component can be predicted, performing the analogue prediction of a time coefficient; when the mode prediction error principal component cannot be predicted, evaluating the time coefficient, and combining the analogue prediction result and evaluation result of the time coefficient, and the feature vectors corresponding to the mode prediction error principal component, so as to form mode prediction errors; utilizing the mode prediction errors to correct seasonal precipitation mode prediction results. By adopting the technical scheme, the method has the advantages that the evolution information of prediction factors can be fully and effectively utilized, the time scale feature of the mode prediction is fully considered, and the working efficiency of prediction persons and the accuracy of prediction results are greatly improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of meteorological climate prediction, in particular to a method for similarly forecasting seasonal precipitation based on a seasonal forecast model. Background technique [0002] my country is located in the East Asian monsoon region, and weather and climate disasters are frequent, especially drought and flood disasters have greatly affected my country's economic construction and social development. The prediction of seasonal time scale, especially the prediction of drought and flood in summer, is a matter of great concern to leaders at all levels from the central to the local level. Focusing on the seasonal forecasting of the flood season precipitation forecast, it is related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and plays an important role in my country's social and economic development and the construction of a harmonious society. It has always been the top priority of the national disaster pre...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0011] The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of similar forecasting method of seasonal precipitation based on seasonal forecast model, thus solve the aforementioned problems existing in the prior art

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