Real-time prediction method of ship trajectory

Abstract

The invention relates to a ship track real-time prediction method which comprises the steps that firstly, a sea radar is used for acquiring real-time and historic position information of a ship and processes the information primarily; then ship track data are preprocessed at each sampling moment, the ship track data are clustered at each sampling moment, parameter training is performed on the ship track data at each sampling moment with a hidden Markov model, a hidden state q corresponding to a current moment observation value is obtained with a Viterbi algorithm at each sampling moment according to parameters of the hidden Markov model, and finally, a ship position predication value in a further time period is obtained on the basis of the hidden state q of the ship at the current moment by setting a set predication time domain W at each sampling moment, and accordingly, the track of the ship in a future time period is speculated in a rolling manner at each sampling moment. The ship track real-time prediction method can predicate the ship track in real time in a rolling manner, the accurate is better, and powerful guarantee is provided for follow-up ship conflict release.

Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to a sea area traffic control method, in particular to a method for real-time prediction of ship trajectory based on a rolling planning strategy. Background technique

[0002] With the rapid development of the global shipping industry, the traffic in some busy sea areas is becoming more and more congested. In sea areas with dense and complex ship traffic flow, the control method of sailing plan combined with manual interval allocation for the conflict between ships can no longer adapt to the rapid development of the shipping industry. In order to ensure the safe separation between ships, the implementation of effective conflict deployment has become the focus of sea area traffic control. Ship conflict resolution is a key technology in the field of navigation. A safe and efficient solution is of great significance for increasing the flow of ships in sea areas and ensuring maritime safety.

[0003] In order to improve the navigati...

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