Photovoltaic power plant output power prediction method based on weighted FCM clustering algorithm

Abstract

The invention relates to a photovoltaic power plant output power prediction method based on a weighted FCM clustering algorithm. The method provided by the invention comprises the steps that a weather data sample which matches a meteorological data sample to be predicted and the corresponding photovoltaic power plant output power are selected from the existing photovoltaic power plant operation database and are used as a reference sample; through knowledge evaluation, a typical data matrix is selected and is combined with the meteorological data sample to be predicted; after normalization, a final standard sample matrix is formed and is used as an input variable of the algorithm; and after property-weighted FCM clustering algorithm iteration, output power corresponding to the meteorological data sample to be predicted is acquired. According to the invention, the shortcomings of complex meteorological factors, unbalanced influence on the output power, meteorological data randomness and uncertainty and the like are overcome; the method has the advantages of fast prediction and high accuracy; a prediction result provides a data support for rational resource dispatching and scientific overall planning of the power industry; and good economic and social benefits are acquired.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the output power of a photovoltaic power station based on a weighted FCM clustering algorithm, which belongs to the technical field of electric power engineering. Background technique [0002] Primary energy sources such as coal, oil, and natural gas are gradually depleted, and environmental conditions are deteriorating. The development and utilization of renewable energy has gradually become the focus of attention of various countries. Solar energy is inexhaustible and inexhaustible, and it is clean, safe, and convenient to convert. Power generation technology has been deeply studied and widely used worldwide. In the future energy structure, renewable energy power generation represented by photovoltaic power generation will occupy an important component. With the support and guidance of various national preferential policies and standards and regulations, a large number of photovoltaic power plants in my cou...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting the output power of photovoltaic power plants based on the weighted FCM clustering algorithm to solve the problem of difficult coordination between photovoltaic power generation and conventional energy power generation caused by inaccurate and untimely output power rain of existing photovoltaic power plants

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