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Repairable spare part demand prediction method for phased-mission system

A demand forecasting, multi-stage technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as poor forecasting effect of spare parts demand

Active Publication Date: 2016-08-03
NORTHWESTERN POLYTECHNICAL UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In order to overcome the disadvantages of the poor prediction effect of spare parts demand in existing methods, the present invention provides a method for forecasting repairable spare parts demand of a multi-stage mission system

Method used

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  • Repairable spare part demand prediction method for phased-mission system

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Embodiment Construction

[0061] refer to Figure 1-4 . The specific steps of the repairable spare parts demand forecasting method for the multi-stage mission system of the present invention are as follows:

[0062] 1. Use the Markov chain to establish the failure model of each component or component group in the multi-stage task in the mission system carrying repairable spare parts, and consider different components in the equipment system and their corresponding spare parts as a component group as a whole. The specific method is as follows:

[0063] The radar system participating in the exercise mission contains three types of components c 1 ,c 2 ,c 3 , the exercise task includes two phases of target search and target tracking, and the duration of the two phases is T1 and T2 respectively. When performing a target search task, component c is required 1 works, and component c 2 ,c 3 There is at least one job, and the task structure function at this time is F 1 =c 1 c 2 +c 1 c 3 . When per...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a repairable spare part demand prediction method for a phased-mission system, which is used for solving the technical problem of poor spare part demand prediction effects of an existing method. According to the technical scheme, the method comprises the following steps: firstly, analyzing spare parts required by missions of different phases, and determining part and system states, comprising a running state and a failure state; then, performing failure mode modeling on each part (group), and calculating the availability of each part (group) in the whole phase of mission, wherein different parts and corresponding spare parts thereof in the system are considered as a whole part group when the spare parts exist and are repairable; next, generating a BDD model of the phased-mission system on the premise of a certain sequencing rule; finally calculating the reliability of the phased-mission system under the corresponding spare part number on the basis of the established BDD model and a Markov chain of the parts (groups), and comparing the reliability with required mission system reliability, thereby predicting a repairable spare part demand of the system. The repairable spare part demand can be accurately predicted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a demand forecasting method for spare parts, in particular to a demand forecasting method for repairable spare parts of a multi-stage task system. Background technique [0002] The document "Chinese Invention Patent Publication No. CN101320455A" discloses a method for forecasting demand for spare parts based on in-service life evaluation". First, use the historical records of parts replacement during equipment operation to establish a statistical model to evaluate the current service conditions of spare parts. Then, according to the estimated value of in-service life and the actual service time, define the spare parts demand function, and further predict the total spare parts demand of multiple equipment within a certain time range. But the task system reliability calculated by this method In the case that both parts and spare parts are not repairable, the parts can only be replaced but not repaired. However, the actual parts a...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 蔡志强郭鹏司书宾司伟涛李洋张帅赵江滨
Owner NORTHWESTERN POLYTECHNICAL UNIV
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