Combined prediction method for wind power output interval

A technology of wind power output and prediction method, which is applied in the direction of instruments, data processing applications, calculations, etc., can solve the problems of unsteady natural wind speed and unfavorable wind power output prediction, etc., and achieve the effects of strong adaptability, improved accuracy, and good gain effect

Active Publication Date: 2016-12-21
SOUTHEAST UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

Among them, the wind speed has the greatest impact on wind power output. The wind speed of natural wind is not co

Method used

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  • Combined prediction method for wind power output interval
  • Combined prediction method for wind power output interval
  • Combined prediction method for wind power output interval

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Embodiment 1

[0070] In this embodiment, the Matlab programming simulation platform is used to select the actual data of a certain wind farm during a certain period of time for analysis. Based on the actual historical data, three methods are used to predict, and the actual prediction effects of the three methods in each period are calculated. The best prediction interval is used as the optimal interval prediction method for this period. The forecast interval of each time period can be deduced by analogy to form an overall interval forecast.

[0071] Select historical data for a certain period of time for analysis, respectively use three methods for prediction, and compare the predicted results with actual data, and select the best prediction method (interval) for that period.

[0072] (1) Using the method of setting the forecast range of wind power output based on the wind speed change ratio, first predict the change rate of the wind speed at each time point, and use the BP neural network to pre...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a combined prediction method for a wind power output interval, and aims at solving the problems that wind power generation is relatively undetermined due to influence of natural wind speed and the prediction precision is decreased due to advanced prediction time. The range of wind power output is predicted, the predicted wind power output range is set in a combined manner based on three methods, namely the wind speed change ratio, the predicted value change rate and the practical power optimized value, and the optimal power wind output prediction interval in each period is selected according to historical wind power output data. According to the different parameters including the wind speed change ratio, the predicted value change rate and the practical power optimized value are integrated, the optimal prediction interval is selected, and the wind power output can be predicted more accurately.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of wind power output prediction, in particular to wind power output prediction based on wind speed uncertainty interval prediction, and establishes a wind power output interval combined prediction model based on three different methods. Background technique [0002] Wind power generation is the main way of clean power generation. However, wind power generation is affected by natural wind speed and there is great uncertainty. Accurate wind power forecasting is an effective way to improve the efficiency of wind energy utilization, and it is also an important means to ensure the balance of the grid when wind power is connected. Wind power companies can use the forecast results to reasonably arrange maintenance, increase the wind farm capacity coefficient and reduce power generation costs. The output of wind power is greatly affected by weather, season and other factors. The main influencing factors are: wind speed; air densi...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q50/06
Inventor 李扬吴奇珂宋天立陈昕儒
Owner SOUTHEAST UNIV
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