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Prediction method and device

A forecasting method and forecasting unit technology, applied in the computer field, can solve the problem of low forecasting accuracy, and achieve the effects of high accuracy, increased profit, and reduced risk

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-04-26
NANJING UNIV OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The embodiment of the present invention provides a prediction method and device, which solves the problem of low prediction accuracy in the prior art

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Embodiment Construction

[0024] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly described below in conjunction with the drawings and embodiments of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0025] figure 1 It is a flow chart of a forecasting method provided by the embodiment of the present invention. The method can be executed by a server. The forecasting method can be applied in bulk transactions, including but not limited to futures, crude oil, and stocks. In this application, the This forecasting method is applied in stock forecasting as an example for illustration. Such as figure 1 As shown, the method includes the following steps:

[0026] S110, according to the obtained historical technical indicators, train the Cox proportional hazards model, and obtain the rising model, falling model and covariates.

[0027] Several technical indicators ...

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Abstract

An embodiment of the invention relates to a prediction method and a prediction device. The prediction method comprises the steps of: training a Cox proportional hazard model according to acquired historical technical indexes, and acquiring a rising model, a declining model and a covariate; determining a risk function according to the covariate; determining an accumulative risk function according to the risk function; and calculating a probability of future rise and a probability of future decline according to the accumulative risk function, current technical indexes composed of time of previous rise and time of previous decline, the rising model and the declining model, and conducting a transaction based on the probability of future rise and the probability of future decline. Therefore, the prediction method and the prediction device are higher in precision of prediction results, are conductive to helping investors to make the most reasonable decision, increase profits and reduce the risks.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of computers, in particular to a prediction method and device. Background technique [0002] With the development of the economy, the stock market is an important market for investment and financial management. Due to the short-term fluctuation of investment demand, as well as the high volatility and nonlinear relationship of the stock market, stock market forecasting has become a challenging task. Some researchers have found that many standard econometric models fail to produce better forecasts than random walk models, encouraging researchers to develop more predictable models to predict the stock market. [0003] In the field of stock market forecasting, the earliest models relied on traditional statistical methods, such as time series models and multivariate analysis, in which stock movements were modeled as a function of time series and solved as a regression problem. However, due to the chaotic nature of stock p...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q40/04G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q40/04G06Q10/04
Inventor 卜湛曹杰高光亮
Owner NANJING UNIV OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS
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