Transformer overhauling decision-making method based on grey prediction and risk assessment

Abstract

The invention discloses a transformer overhauling decision-making method based on grey prediction and risk assessment. The transformer overhauling decision-making method comprises the steps of: respectively acquiring historical data and current measured data of transformer state variables and transformer fault types, and acquiring a predicted value of a state variable of a transformer at a tk moment according to a grey prediction method; adopting a fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm based on information entropy, and calculating an occurrence probability of each failure of transformer at the tkmoment by combining with the data of t state variable of the transformer at the tk moment; and determining an expected cost of each overhauling strategy of the transformer at the tk moment, comparingthe expected cost with a transformer failure total risk expected cost, and determining the optimal overhauling time and the optimal overhauling strategy of the transformer. The transformer overhauling decision-making method fully considers difference of failure probabilities of the individual transformer and the integral transformer while calculating the occurrence probability of each failure ofthe transformer, regarding the information entropy representing the sample distribution situation as priori knowledge and substituting the information entropy into the fuzzy clustering algorithm, andimproves the precision of transformer failure probability calculation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a transformer maintenance decision method, in particular to a transformer maintenance decision method based on gray prediction and risk assessment. Background technique [0002] Transformer is the key hub equipment of the power system, and its operating status is directly related to the safety and stability of the entire power system. Therefore, it is especially important to formulate a reasonable maintenance strategy for the transformer. Transformer maintenance decision-making methods are usually established based on risk assessment, and maintenance decisions are made by analyzing the serious consequences of faults and the probability of failure. At present, the decision-making methods for transformer maintenance are mostly based on the experience of users or experts when evaluating the serious consequences of transformer faults. The overall transformer failure probability represented by probability and Weibull distribution i...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] Aiming at the shortcomings of the existing calculation methods in the prior art, such as poor versatility and large errors, the present invention provides a decision-making method for transformer maintenance based on gray prediction and risk assessment

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