Real-time flood control risk analytic calculation method for parallel reservoir group

Abstract

The invention discloses a real-time flood control risk analytic calculation method for a parallel reservoir group. The method comprises the following steps that: (1) establishing a mathematical expression of an uncertainty factor to obtain the edge distribution function of the uncertainty factor; (2) on the basis of a Copula function, solving the joint probability density distribution function ofthe multidimensional uncertainty factor; (3) establishing the real-time flood control regulation risk model of the reservoir group, and analyzing the flood control dispatching risk of the reservoir group of each moment; and (4) calculating the real-time flood control regulation risk of the reservoir group. By use of the method, the influence of correlation between uncertainty factors for the real-time flood control regulation risk of the reservoir group is considered, the analytic calculation formula of the real-time flood control dispatching risk of the reservoir group of each moment is solved, and the method is high in calculation efficiency, easy in implementation and high in universality.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to reservoir flood control scheduling risk assessment, in particular to a real-time flood control risk analysis and calculation method for parallel reservoir groups. Background technique [0002] Real-time flood control scheduling of reservoir groups is one of the important technical means for flood control and disaster reduction in river basins. It can improve the efficiency of flood control projects with a small investment. However, there are many uncertain factors in the real-time flood control dispatching process of the existing reservoir groups, including the uncertainty of the inflow flow process of the reservoir group, the uncertainty of the outflow process of the reservoir group, and the uncertainty of the interval flood forecast process. These uncertain factors lead to the uncertainty of the combined flow process of downstream public flood control points, which has a certain impact on flood control decision-making and has...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, the existing risk assessment methods for real-time flood control operation of reservoir groups mainly have the following shortcomings: (1) It is difficult to obtain the joint probability density distribution function of multi-dimensional uncertain factors; (2) The random simulation method is used to calculate the risk of real-time flood control operation of reservoir groups, Calculation efficiency is not high, versatility is not enough, and different systems need to be re-modeled

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