Electric power system load prediction method and system

A technology of load forecasting and power system, applied in the field of power system, can solve the problem of low accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2018-05-11
STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The object of the present invention is exactly in order to solve above-mentioned problem, has proposed a kind of power system load forecasting method and system, and this method and system are based on the support vector machine method of gray theory-variational mode decomposition and NSGA-II optimization, can deal with load effectively The accuracy of forecasting large fluctuations is not high, and it is easy to fall into the disadvantage of local optimum

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  • Electric power system load prediction method and system
  • Electric power system load prediction method and system
  • Electric power system load prediction method and system

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Embodiment Construction

[0067] Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and example the present invention will be further described:

[0068] A flowchart of a specific embodiment of the power system load method provided by the present invention is as follows figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0069] Step S101: Obtain historical load data of the power system;

[0070] The historical load data of the power system may be historical data collected by a data collection and monitoring device. After the historical load data is acquired, it may further include performing normalization preprocessing on the historical load data of the electric power system.

[0071] Step S102: Preprocessing the data;

[0072] Equal intervals and removal of outliers are performed on the data, so that the data containing marginal values ​​are equally spaced, and the edge data are processed to improve the prediction accuracy.

[0073] Step S103: Using gray theory to detrend the data.

[0074] The definition of g...

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Abstract

The present invention discloses an electric power system load prediction method and system. The method comprises the steps of: obtaining historical load data of an electric power system; performing preprocessing of the obtained historical load data; employing a grey theory to perform de-trending processing of the data after preprocessing, and obtaining a trend item; performing spectrum analysis todetermine the number of decomposition layers, and employing variation modal decomposition to perform decomposition of data after the de-trending processing; and employing a support vector machine optimized by an improved NSGA-II to perform classification summation reconstruction of the decomposed data; obtaining a final prediction result according to a reconstructed result and the trend item; andperforming superposition of the prediction value of each load component to determine an actual prediction result. The electric power system load prediction method and system can effective respond todefects that the load prediction fluctuation is large, the accuracy is not high and it is easy to be caught in local optimum based on the grey theory-variation modal decomposition and the support vector machine method optimized by the NSGA-II.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric power systems, in particular to a method and system for load forecasting of electric power systems. Background technique [0002] Power load forecasting is an important content, premise and foundation of power system planning and grid operation. Under the situation that the country is vigorously advocating energy conservation and environmental protection to save existing energy consumption, the accuracy of power load forecasting is related to the economic and efficient operation of the entire power grid enterprise and the safe operation of the entire power grid. Accuracy sets higher standards. [0003] At present, the commonly used traditional methods of short-term load forecasting include classical forecasting methods represented by time series method and regression analysis method, and artificial intelligence methods represented by expert system method, neural network and fuzzy logic method. ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06H02J3/00
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06H02J3/00H02J3/003Y04S10/50
Inventor 施亚林张同乔刘晓张若冰
Owner STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER
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