Drainage basin wetness-dryness prediction method and system based on climatic factors

Abstract

The invention discloses a drainage basin wetness-dryness prediction method and system based on climatic factors. The method comprises the following steps that: establishing a teleconnection model of multiple pieces of climatic factor data of a drainage basin water-vapor flux and a drainage basin air temperature teleconnection model; establishing a related model of the drainage basin water-vapor flux, air temperature and drainage basin evaporation and precipitation; combining a drainage basin water-vapor flux teleconnection model with a drainage basin air temperature teleconnection model, and predicting to obtain the drainage basin water-vapor flux and the drainage basin air temperature; and according to the drainage basin water-vapor flux and the drainage basin air temperature, combining the drainage basin evaporation and precipitation related model, combining drainage basin landform with underlaying surface information to predict a drainage basin wetness-dryness situation according to drainage basin evaporation and precipitation. By use of the method, time prediction accuracy can be effectively improved, runoff volume prediction accuracy is effectively improved so as to improve the accuracy of a long-term wetness-dryness situation in the drainage basin, and reasonable and effective water resource planning and utilization can be realized.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of hydrological forecasting, in particular to a method and system for predicting the abundance and dryness of a watershed based on climate factors. Background technique [0002] The abundance and dryness of the watershed refers to the size of the river runoff in the watershed, which has an important impact on the national economy and the production and life of the people. Predicting the abundance and dryness of the watershed can provide important guidance for production and life. [0003] At present, the main method of predicting the watershed's mid- and long-term abundance and dryness is to establish a periodic model based on the historical data of the watershed's abundance and drought, and predict the watershed's abundance and drought in the future based on the cycle model. However, the periodic model only makes statistics on the appearance of the watershed's abundance and dryness, and does not reveal the ...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the periodic model only makes statistics on the appearance of the watershed's abundance and dryness, and does not reveal the decisive factors of the watershed's abundance and drought, and the periodic model has large errors in two aspects: one is the periodic error, for example, a certain periodic model Its cycle is 3 to 8 years. If three years of wet years have been experienced, it is difficult to determine whether the next year will be a dry year or a wet year. The second is the error in the size of the runoff. There is a large error in the estimation of the runoff by the cycle model.

[0004] In addition, the abundance and dryness of a watershed is determined by evaporation, precipitation, watershed topography, and underlying surface conditions in the watershed. Although it is a relatively mature technology to predict the short-term abundance and dryness of the watershed using the measured values ​​of the above variables, due to future evaporation and precipitation data cannot be directly measured, so there are certain difficulties in predicting the long-term wet and dry conditions of the watershed with this method, which needs to be solved

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