Multi-return-period tsunami disaster evaluation method based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation

Abstract

The invention discloses a multi-return-period tsunami disaster evaluation method based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation. The method comprises: S1, applying multiple source parameter estimation methods to establish a seismic activity parameter logic tree of potential tsunami source areas; S2, applying linear tsunami numerical simulation to establish a tsunami unit source Green's-function library; S3, applying a Monte Carlo stochastic simulation to generate a stochastic seismic event set according to the above logic tree; S4, applying stochastic slippage simulation to generate a tsunami waveamplitude set according to the tsunami unit source Green's-function library and a stochastic seismic event set; and S5, carrying out counting and uncertainty analysis on multi-return-period tsunami disaster distribution results according to the tsunami wave amplitude set. According to the above method, problems that in the prior art, risk evaluation results are higher, and corresponding occurrence probability thereof cannot be given can be solved, multiple types of uncertainty are fused into a final evaluation result, credibility of the result is increased, running efficiency is improved at the same time, and targeted disaster prevention and mitigation deployment and urban construction planning of decision makers are facilitated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to tsunami disaster assessment technology, in particular to a multi-period tsunami disaster assessment method based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation. Background technique [0002] Since the beginning of the 21st century, there have been many earthquake and tsunami disasters in the world, causing direct economic losses of more than 260 billion US dollars. Among them, the 9.2-magnitude earthquake and tsunami in Sumatra, Indonesia in 2004 and the 9.0-magnitude earthquake and tsunami in East Japan in 2011 caused devastating blows to the lives of local residents and economic development. It can be seen that the tsunami has become one of the most serious natural disasters that threaten the lives and properties of coastal residents around the world. [0003] The core of tsunami disaster risk assessment is to determine the tsunami hazard intensity of a certain assessment area, specifically, to determine the maximum tsunami wave ampli...

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Problems solved by technology

[0007] Aiming at the problems in the prior art, the present invention provides a multi-period tsunami disaster assessment method based on Monte Carlo stochastic simulation, which can solve the problem that the risk assessment results in the prior art are too high and the corresponding occurrence probability cannot be given The problem

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