Precipitation forecasting and support vector machine coupled real-time river flood peak water level forecasting method

A technology of support vector machine and flood peak water level, which is applied in the field of measurement and control, can solve the problems of general application personnel in the forecasting process, the influence of forecasting results, and the large forecasting cost, so as to improve the efficiency of the algorithm, easy to grasp and use, and improve the accuracy and reliability. Effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-11-30
HANGZHOU HYDROLOGY & WATER RESOURCES MONITORING STATION
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Problems solved by technology

This kind of method is affected by the accuracy of the river channel model and the change of the river channel, which will have a huge impact on the forecast re

Method used

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  • Precipitation forecasting and support vector machine coupled real-time river flood peak water level forecasting method
  • Precipitation forecasting and support vector machine coupled real-time river flood peak water level forecasting method
  • Precipitation forecasting and support vector machine coupled real-time river flood peak water level forecasting method

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Embodiment Construction

[0047] The method of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0048] Take the water level forecast of the Gongchen Bridge of the Hangzhou Canal as an example.

[0049] like figure 1 As shown, it is a flow chart of a method for real-time forecasting of flood peak water level in a river channel coupled with quantitative precipitation forecasting and support vector machine. The specific implementation steps are as follows:

[0050] Step 1: Use a pedigree clustering algorithm to classify historical data based on precipitation.

[0051] ①Read the historical information about the precipitation process of the Gongchen Bridge N (N=65) field in the Hangzhou Canal from 1981 to 2016, including the rainfall measurement stations in the vicinity of the river (Tangxi, Gongchen Bridge, Qibao, Gate) every time Hourly precipitation, hourly water level of upstream and downstream rivers (Chongde, Tangbei, Tongxiang).

[0052] (2) Calc...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a precipitation forecasting and support vector machine coupled real-time river flood peak water level forecasting method. According to the method, quantitative precipitation forecasting data is taken as influence factors and a support vector machine is used for forecasting future flood peak water levels of rivers. According to the method, quantitative precipitation forecasting is used for forecasting flood peaks, so that the forecasting periods can be brought ahead greatly, future flood peak water levels are predicted in real time via current precipitation forecasting information, and prediction results can be corrected in time according to weather changes, so that the precision and reliability of flood peak forecasting are improved continuously. According to the method, relationships between factors such as precipitation, risen water levels and the like and flood peak water levels are established on the basis of the support vector machine; and compared with river flood algorithms, the method has the advantages that the whole analysis process is rapid and convenient and the method is easy to be grasped and used by users.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of measurement and control, in particular to a real-time forecasting method for flood peak water level of a river channel coupled with quantitative precipitation forecasting and support vector machine. Background technique [0002] Predict the possibility of flood disasters in advance, formulate various flood control measures in a timely manner, carry out reasonable reservoir scheduling upstream, appropriately reinforce and heighten embankments downstream, and divert floods in a timely manner when necessary to minimize the risk of flooding. The losses caused by flood disasters are of great significance. Flood control decision-making needs to know the flood peak water level information in order to best carry out effective flood control scheduling and arrange emergency flood control measures in advance to reduce flood losses. Therefore, it is very necessary to seek a simple, practical, high-precision, reliabl...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06F17/30
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0635Y02A10/40
Inventor 孙映宏姬战生王英英章国稳胡其美王玉明张振林邱超
Owner HANGZHOU HYDROLOGY & WATER RESOURCES MONITORING STATION
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