Regional load forecasting method based on area and cloud reasoning

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of power system load forecasting, in particular to a regional load forecasting method based on area of a region and cloud reasoning. Based on the cloud thrust theoryand the load index optimization method of CA model, by establishing the optimal model of interval influencing factors, the load and spatial distribution of electricity are forecasted, This method makes full use of the advantages of cloud reasoning model in complex interval dynamic evolution in time and space, Combined with the load planning and forecasting in a period of time, the uncertainty andfuzziness of land use can be integrated into the result of load forecasting, Forecasting results are closer to the actual situation and in line with the future trend of development, which can promotethe load forecasting and power planning in the direction of the development and evolution of power load, and has a wide range of application prospects in power planning and forecasting in complex areas.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system load forecasting, in particular to a regional load forecasting method based on area area and cloud reasoning. Background technique [0002] As an important part of power system planning and design, load forecasting for power consumption areas and power supply areas is an important means to improve the security and economy of the power grid system. Load forecasting starts from actual needs and makes predictions for future regional power consumption and power supply loads. Reasonable forecast, which involves various forecasts of future demand for electricity and future electricity consumption. Then, according to the results of load forecasting, a reasonable arrangement is made for the allocation of power resources, the planning of power usage, and the operation mode and maintenance plan of the power system. Therefore, the national code has formulated the "Electrical Code for Civil Buildings" according t...

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Problems solved by technology

Therefore, the national code has formulated the "Electrical Code for Civil Buildings" according to actual needs, and the power system has also issued the "Distribution Network Planning and Design Manual" and other planning and design standards. electricity regions can make better load forecasts

However, due to the rapid development of people's living standards, the above-mentioned standard basis is difficult to take into account the uncertain factors brought about by economic development, climate change, and regional development. Good forecasting and planning, so better forecasting methods are needed to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of power system load forecasting

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