Regional load forecasting method based on area and cloud reasoning

A load forecasting and cloud reasoning technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as inability to forecast and plan for long-term electricity consumption environment, single index factor, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-12-21
STATE GRID JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD TAIZHOU POWER SUPPLY BRANCH +1
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Problems solved by technology

Therefore, the national code has formulated the "Electrical Code for Civil Buildings" according to actual needs, and the power system has also issued the "Distribution Network Planning and Design Manual" and other planning and design standards. electricity regions can make better load forecasts
However, due to the rapid development of p...

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  • Regional load forecasting method based on area and cloud reasoning
  • Regional load forecasting method based on area and cloud reasoning
  • Regional load forecasting method based on area and cloud reasoning

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Embodiment Construction

[0098] The present invention will be described in detail below with reference to specific embodiments.

[0099] like figure 1 As shown in the figure, a regional load prediction method based on area area and cloud inference includes the following steps:

[0100] Step 1. Initialize the GIS platform, and use the spatial analysis function of the GIS platform to extract spatial information. Based on the actual shape of the area to be planned and the positional relationship between the areas, the irregular areas are divided according to functions, and the establishment and the actual situation Consistent area space to express the attributes of the area, the positional relationship between the areas, the shape of the area, the adjacency relationship between the areas, etc. Because the trend method is used in the present invention, the basic idea is to extrapolate the development trend of the load based on the historical load data. In order to ensure the validity of the data and impr...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of power system load forecasting, in particular to a regional load forecasting method based on area of a region and cloud reasoning. Based on the cloud thrust theoryand the load index optimization method of CA model, by establishing the optimal model of interval influencing factors, the load and spatial distribution of electricity are forecasted, This method makes full use of the advantages of cloud reasoning model in complex interval dynamic evolution in time and space, Combined with the load planning and forecasting in a period of time, the uncertainty andfuzziness of land use can be integrated into the result of load forecasting, Forecasting results are closer to the actual situation and in line with the future trend of development, which can promotethe load forecasting and power planning in the direction of the development and evolution of power load, and has a wide range of application prospects in power planning and forecasting in complex areas.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power system load forecasting, in particular to a regional load forecasting method based on area area and cloud reasoning. Background technique [0002] As an important part of power system planning and design, load forecasting for power consumption areas and power supply areas is an important means to improve the security and economy of the power grid system. Load forecasting starts from actual needs and makes predictions for future regional power consumption and power supply loads. Reasonable forecast, which involves various forecasts of future demand for electricity and future electricity consumption. Then, according to the results of load forecasting, a reasonable arrangement is made for the allocation of power resources, the planning of power usage, and the operation mode and maintenance plan of the power system. Therefore, the national code has formulated the "Electrical Code for Civil Buildings" according t...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 翁蓓蓓梅鑫段小峰吴倩
Owner STATE GRID JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD TAIZHOU POWER SUPPLY BRANCH
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