A risk assessment method for post-earthquake debris flow based on provenance activity intensity

Abstract

The invention discloses a post-earthquake debris flow risk assessment method based on source activity intensity, which belongs to the field of debris flow prevention and control engineering, and is characterized in that it comprises the following steps: a. classifying activity intensity; b. calculating Evaluate the probability comprehensive discriminant value F of different grading conditions of factors; c. Determine the weight W of each type of factor i And the weight value K of each level of activity intensity for the area j ; d. Construct the risk model under each activity intensity condition of the source body through weighted superposition calculation; e. Calculate the total risk value of the area and divide it into five levels. The present invention introduces the multi-stage debris flow source body activity intensity into the evaluation model by the probability comprehensive discriminant method, considers the topographic and hydrological factors in combination with the analytic hierarchy process, and comprehensively weights and superimposes to obtain the evaluation result of the debris flow risk after each phase of the earthquake, which can effectively improve the debris flow in the earthquake area. The accuracy of risk assessment provides a more powerful basis for the prediction and prevention of post-earthquake debris flow disasters.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of debris flow prevention and control engineering, in particular to a method for assessing the risk of debris flow after an earthquake based on the source activity intensity. Background technique [0002] Debris flow is an extremely complex geological disaster that occurs in mountainous areas. It is a two-phase fluid that is mixed with solid materials such as soil and stone and water and moves along steep ditch slopes under the action of gravity. my country's debris flow disasters spread across the vast mountainous areas of 26 provinces and cities, with a total of tens of thousands of distributions. It is one of the countries most seriously threatened by debris flow disasters in the world. The average annual direct economic loss caused by debris flow disasters is about 1 billion yuan. Therefore, in recent years, debris flows after earthquakes have become the main geological disasters that threaten the econom...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The quantitative detection and evaluation method for the risk of debris flow disclosed in this patent document, although the material source is taken into account, is not well combined with the hydraulic conditions. The material source has great uncertainty, and the activity intensity of the material source itself is not considered. , the source of provenance is in the process of dynamic evolution every year, and the activity intensity directly affects the accuracy of the assessment results of debris flow hazards. Therefore, it cannot effectively predict the debris flow disaster after the earthquake, and cannot provide a strong basis for the prevention and control of the debris flow disaster after the earthquake.

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