A method for predict corrosion rate of subsea multiphase pipeline

Abstract

A method for predict corrosion rate of subsea mixed transportation pipeline include such steps as: 1) measuring corrosion rate detection value sequence X (0) of subsea mixed transportation pipeline atdifferent time interval, 2) constructing an ARIMA model and a NEGM (1, 1, tau) model for predicting the corrosion rate of the subsea mixed transportation pipeline according to the corrosion rate detection value sequence X (0) of the subsea mixed transportation pipeline obtained in the step 1); 3) that ARIMA model and the NEGM (1, 1, tau) model are respectively use to establish three combined forecast models by using the equal weight method, the grey relational degree criterion and the minimum sum of square error criterion; 4) accord to RMSE, the average relative error AARD and the average error MAPE evaluate the performance of the three combined prediction models established in the step 3), And select the best performance combination forecasting model, and then use the best performance combination forecasting model to predict the corrosion rate of submarine pipeline. This method can forecast the corrosion rate of submarine pipeline through combination forecasting, and the prediction accuracy is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of submarine oil and gas pipeline transportation, and relates to a method for predicting the corrosion rate of a submarine mixed transportation pipeline. Background technique [0002] Submarine pipelines are the "lifeline" of offshore oil and gas transportation. Compared with land pipelines, submarine pipelines face a more complex environment. With the continuous development of marine resources, offshore oil and gas development has extended from shallow seas to more than 3000m deep seas. This is even more The risk of corrosion and leakage of submarine pipelines is increased, and once a pipeline leakage accident occurs, huge economic losses will be caused. Among them, the mixed transportation pipeline is an important part of the submarine pipeline system. The medium it transports includes not only oil and gas, but also water and sand in many cases, which accelerates the corrosion rate of the pipeline. Theref...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In view of the problem of incomplete utilization of new information in the traditional GM(1,1) model, Jiang Feng et al. proposed to use x (1) (k n ) is the initial value of modeling to predict the remaining life of a marine riser

Although the above studies have achieved certain results, due to the many factors affecting the corrosion of submarine pipelines and their intricate relationships, the defects of the single prediction model gradually emerged.

Images