Calculation method of effective precipitation in early stage of regional debris flow

Abstract

Aiming at the defect that the existing technology is difficult to match well with the actual distribution of precipitation in the early stage of the real situation with a long period of time, the invention discloses a method for measuring and calculating the effective precipitation in the early stage of regional debris flow. This method uses the historical precipitation data observed by the debris flow forecast area and its surrounding rainfall stations, combined with the main underlying surface factors that affect the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in this area and the actual data of previous precipitation at each station during the demand period, to establish a more accurate debris flow forecast The method for determining the effective precipitation in the previous period. The method of the present invention breaks through the existing technology based on general statistical precipitation interpolation method ideas, and establishes the influence of two major factors on the effective precipitation in the previous period, which comprehensively considers the historical precipitation factors in the forecast area and the main underlying surface factors that affect the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in the forecast area. of new ideas. The principle of the method is more scientific and more in line with the formation mechanism of debris flow, so it has more accurate measurement results. The invention also provides a more accurate debris flow forecasting method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the measurement and calculation of effective precipitation in the early stage of regional debris flow, and belongs to the fields of geomorphological surveying and mapping survey technology and geological disaster prevention and control. Background technique [0002] Precipitation is the most dynamic factor among the three basic conditions (matter, energy, and precipitation conditions) for the formation of debris flows, and it determines and affects the spatial and temporal distribution of debris flows to a certain extent. The precipitation in the formation of debris flow can be divided into previous precipitation and current precipitation according to the occurrence time. Among them, the early precipitation is the precipitation that has occurred until the day before the formation of the debris flow. Existing studies have confirmed that among the various precipitation indicators, the early precipitation that really plays a role ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The existing method uses the interpolation method of the general statistical model to determine the effective precipitation in the early stage of the debris flow forecast unit, without considering the influence of underlying surface factors on the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in mountainous areas, and only uses the method of dealing with weather events greatly affected by sporadic factors It is difficult to match the actual distribution of precipitation in the previous period with a long period of time

This method is also limited by the relatively small density of rainfall observation stations in the debris flow basin, making it more difficult to provide accurate and reliable early precipitation support for debris flow forecasting

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