Probabilistic production simulation method and system for an integrated energy system

Abstract

The invention discloses a probabilistic production simulation method and system for an integrated energy system. The method comprises the steps of obtaining source data; processing the electric load data to obtain net electricity time sequence load data; determining an equivalent continuous electric load curve and an equivalent continuous steam load curve; determining an initial steam quantity function of the integrated energy system; obtaining an equivalent steam quantity function; determining the unit steam yield; determining the generating capacity of the unit; determining the natural gas consumption of the unit; and according to the equivalent steam quantity function, the generating capacity of the unit and the equivalent continuous electric load curve, determining a steam quantity insufficiency expected value and an electric quantity insufficiency expected value of the system. According to the method, the steam yield and power generation amount of different units in the integratedenergy system and the electric quantity purchased from a power grid can be estimated, the cost of the integrated energy system can be estimated, scheduling of the integrated energy system in an industrial park is simulated, and through optimal scheduling, the purposes of reducing the system operation cost and improving the energy utilization efficiency are achieved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of energy assessment, in particular to a stochastic production simulation method and system for an integrated energy system. Background technique [0002] Integrated energy system (Integrated Energy System, IES), as a basic component of Energy Internet, can realize effective scheduling and efficient utilization of different energy sources in a region (such as a city, community or industrial park, etc.). The comprehensive energy system is a complex energy system based on the load, covering various production capacity / energy consuming subjects, and involving the production, transfer and utilization of various energy sources such as electricity, cold and heat. Its load demand is large, the load characteristics are complex, and the reliability of power supply is high. [0003] Probabilistic production simulation (PPS) is under the future load curve, considering the random outage of the unit and the random fluctuation of ...

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