Flight Delay Prediction and Spontaneity Analysis Method Based on asm

Abstract

The present invention proposes an ASM-based flight delay prediction and spillover analysis method. First, facing the problem of delay prediction, an MNR model is constructed to predict the delay by using information such as flight message data, departure time at the front station of the aircraft, aircraft type, whether there are VIPs, etc. Flight arrival time; secondly, facing the problem of delay contagion, use MPM to construct the symmetric model ASM of delay contagion, and define the concept of deformation gradient. If the deformation gradient is less than 0, it proves that the flight is not affected by delay. Otherwise, it means that the flight comes from its own factors or Delays have occurred due to the influence of external factors; finally, if affected by the impact, the MNR is improved based on the ASM model, and the transfer factor is introduced into each parameter of the MNR model to analyze the delay impact. On the basis of the impact analysis, the flight delay time is updated in real time , the equation of arrival delay can be updated in real time, fully considering the delay spread problem, the obtained result is more accurate and the calculation is faster.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of civil aviation, in particular to an ASM-based flight delay prediction and ripple analysis method. Background technique [0002] Flight delays are the focus of air transport service disputes. In recent years, with the continuous growth of China's civil aviation traffic, this issue has received more and more attention. Flight delays not only bring direct economic losses to airports and airlines, but also cause great inconvenience to passengers' normal travel, and seriously disrupt the normal order of airports. For airlines, each aircraft executes multiple flights in one day, and when the upstream flight is delayed, it can effectively predict the delay of the downstream flight, which is helpful for improving the service quality of the airline and enhancing the competition of the airline. power has important practical significance. [0003] For example, the invention patent with the application publication ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] In view of the defects that the existing flight delay analysis methods mostly use static model prediction, the calculation amount is large, and the prediction accuracy is poor in special cases, an ASM-based flight delay prediction and spillover analysis method is proposed

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