Bayes-based multi-stage complex system reliability growth evaluation method
A complex system and evaluation method technology, applied in the field of multi-state system evaluation, can solve the problems of conservative or aggressive evaluation results, achieve high economy, reduce dependence and related test costs
Pending Publication Date: 2019-07-30
JIANGSU UNIV OF TECH
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[0005] The present invention provides a Bayes-based multi-stage complex system reliability growth evaluation for the traditional AMSAA model evaluation method that cannot effectively utilize the reliability growth information of each stage when evaluating the reliability growth, thereby causing the evaluation results to be conservative or aggressive. method, the Bayesian method can make full use of the reliability growth information of each subsystem in each stage, and evaluate the reliability growth of complex systems molecularly and systematically in stages
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[0067] A reliability growth evaluation method for multi-stage complex systems based on Bayes, combining figure 1 , including the following steps:
[0068] S1. A scientific device is composed of 5 subsystems. The integration and commissioning period of the device is divided into three stages, and the running time of each stage is τ 1 =240d,τ 2 =205d,τ 3 = 173d, system 5 is put into operation in the first stage, system 4 is put into operation in the second stage, and other systems are put into operation in the third stage. The operation of each subsystem is independent of each other. The fault correction method is corrected. The fault data samples of each subsystem in each stage obey the NHPP model. The fault data samples of each subsystem in each stage are shown in Table 1.
[0069] Table 1 The failure time of each subsystem
[0070]
[0071] Use the Box-Tiao method to construct the prior distribution without information, combine the failure data of each subsystem in the...
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The invention provides a Bayes-based multi-stage complex system reliability growth evaluation method. Reliability growth information in integrated debugging of each subsystem in each stage instead ofother subjective information is fully utilized to carry out reliability growth evaluation. The defect that when a traditional AMSAA model evaluation method is used for reliability growth evaluation, reliability growth information of all stages cannot be effectively utilized, and conservative or falsification problems of an evaluation result are caused is overcome. According to the method, the evaluation result better conforms to objective reality, meanwhile, a system-level reliability growth test is not needed, dependence on the system-level reliability growth test and related test cost can beeffectively reduced, and high economical efficiency is achieved; for a large complex system in an integrated debugging and trial operation stage, reliability growth evaluation can be systematically carried out on the large complex system in stages by using the method disclosed by the invention, so that the reliability growth evaluation problem of the type of objects is solved.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of multi-state system evaluation, and in particular relates to a Bayes-based multi-stage complex system reliability growth evaluation method. Background technique [0002] At present, complex systems such as the Beijing Electron Positron Collider, the manned space vehicle, the Lanzhou Heavy Ion Accelerator, and the Long March series of launch vehicles that have been built in my country are in the stage of integrated debugging and trial operation. Such complex systems are composed of several subsystems , and each subsystem is composed of unit modules with different functions. Coupled with the high cost, large scale, and problems in test cost and test organization of this type of system, it is impossible to conduct overall-level reliability tests on the system. A more accurate method for the growth evaluation problem of similar complex systems. [0003] The fault correction methods adopted for such complex syst...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06N7/00
CPCG06F30/20G06N7/01
Inventor 周金宇王保昌伍星亮
Owner JIANGSU UNIV OF TECH