Prediction method and device of high-energy electron burst event, and storage medium and device

Abstract

The present invention provides a prediction method and device of a high-energy electron burst event, and a storage medium and device. The prediction method comprises the following steps: extracting high-energy electron daily flux FT and medium-energy electron index data IT0 of a day; calculating high-energy electron flux FT+1 of a second day according to the high-energy electron daily flux FT andthe medium-energy electron index data IT0; predicting whether a high-energy electron burst event occurs according to the calculated high-energy electron flux FT+1 of the second day; predicting that the high-energy electron burst event occurs on the second day if FT+1 is greater than or equal to a first threshold of the high-energy electron daily flux generated by the high-energy electron burst; otherwise, predicting that the high-energy electron burst event does not occur on the second day. The technical solution recorded in the present invention improves the accuracy rate of prediction of thehigh-energy electron burst event in a geosynchronous orbit, and accurately predicts the high-energy electron flux of the geosynchronous orbit and especially the occurrence time of the high-energy electron burst event, so that not only a data basis is provided for the protection of service satellites of the geosynchronous orbit, but also the reference is provided for on-orbit protection of other satellites operating in a region.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of high-energy electronic environment forecasting, in particular to a forecasting method, device, storage medium and equipment for high-energy electronic storm events. Background technique [0002] In space, especially in geosynchronous orbit, high-energy electrons can pass through the outer protective material of the satellite and be deposited into the internal insulating medium. If the flux of high-energy electrons is high, a local high-potential state will be formed, also known as " "Deep charging" will affect the normal operation of satellites in mild cases, and even cause permanent damage in severe cases. Therefore, people attach great importance to high-energy electronic environmental forecasting. Geosynchronous orbit not only operates many operational satellites, but also the state of high electron flux often occurs, so the environmental prediction of high energy electrons in geosynchronous orbit is particular...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, numerical simulation methods based on physical principles are not specific to geosynchronous orbits and are not stable enough

The above-mentioned methods are all aimed at the possibility and scale of the acceleration of electrons with lower energy. Due to the lack of relevant data and knowledge of physical processes, there are certain defects in the prediction of high-energy electron storms based on these traditional space environment data, especially the inability to predict high-energy electron storms. Accurate forecasting of the occurrence time of electronic storms

Because the correlation between the acceleration process of high-energy electrons and the disturbance of the geomagnetic environment is very complicated, the existing forecasting models cannot predict high-energy electron storm events (daily flux greater than 10 8 cm -2 sr -1 ) has certain defects in the beginning, development process and end time

For example, the forecast accuracy rate is too low, etc.

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