Overhead line dynamic current-carrying capacity advanced prediction method and system

Abstract

The invention provides an overhead line dynamic current-carrying capacity advanced prediction method and system, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining the meteorological historical data of thesurrounding environment of an overhead line, and converting the meteorological historical data into time sequence data with the same time interval; training and learning the time series data by adopting a recurrent neural network introducing an attention mechanism to predict the meteorological data of the surrounding environment of the overhead line in the future; according to the prediction result of the meteorological data, in combination with a steady-state heat balance equation, giving overhead line model parameters and the highest allowable temperature thereof, and calculating the dynamic current-carrying capacity and the transmission capacity of the overhead line; respectively predicting a plurality of monitoring points of the overhead line and calculating the dynamic current-carrying capacity and the transmission capacity, and taking the minimum value of all the monitoring points as the final result of the dynamic current-carrying capacity and the transmission capacity of the overhead line at the moment. A recurrent neural network of an attention mechanism is introduced for prediction, so that a training model selectively pays attention to input strongly related to a target, and the prediction precision is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present disclosure relates to the technical field of power systems, in particular to a method and system for advanced prediction of dynamic current-carrying capacity of overhead lines. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of my country's economy, the demand for electricity is also increasing. According to the policy guidance of the country's sustainable development and the development of new energy technologies, in order to meet the increasing demand for electricity, such as wind energy and solar power generation With the rapid development of renewable energy power generation technology, the penetration rate of renewable energy power generation into the grid is getting higher and higher, which makes the fluctuation and uncertainty of the system operation status increasingly prominent, and poses a huge challenge to the safe and efficient operation of the power system. To meet this challenge, generation and load regulation resources...

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Problems solved by technology

However, severe weather conditions such as the above rarely occur during actual operation, so the static thermal rating of overhead lines is a fairly conservative value, so overhead lines cannot exert their transmission flexibility, which increases the high proportion The network congestion probability in the dispatching process of the renewable energy power system, when the overhead line is blocked during the dispatching process, it will increase the dispatching cost, and once a certain overhead line has network congestion, the forced transfer of the power flow will further intensify The probability that other lines near the line will be blocked, resulting in a further expansion of the scope of influence

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